Daily Fantasy Golf Course Primer: TOUR Championship

As the PGA Tour season concludes, what can we glean from past events at East Lake GC?

This is it: the final event in the PGA Tour calendar. It's down to the final 30 in the FedEx Cup standings, meaning our choices are limited for daily fantasy lineups on FanDuel.

That doesn't mean, though, that there isn't an edge to be found if we dig into the course and apply some game theory. After all, Keegan Bradley won the last event at sub-10% ownership on FanDuel.

So what does East Lake GC have to offer?

Course and Tournament Info

Course: East Lake GC
Par: 70
Distance: 7,346 yards
Greens: Bermuda
Fairways: Zoysia
Rough: Bermuda

East Lake has long been the host of the TOUR Championship, and 10 years back, the course added about 150 yards to its length during a Rees Jones renovation. Relative to par, it's played about average over the past 10 iterations since that renovation.

Year Difficulty Rank Course Par Yards Avg Score Avg O/U Par
2017 31 East Lake GC 70 7,346 69.383 -0.617
2016 27 East Lake GC 70 7,385 69.615 -0.385
2015 17 East Lake GC 70 7,307 70.375 0.375
2014 20 East Lake GC 70 7,307 70.259 0.259
2013 30 East Lake GC 70 7,307 69.383 -0.617
2012 20 East Lake GC 70 7,319 70.417 0.417
2011 28 East Lake GC 70 7,319 69.792 -0.208
2010 18 East Lake GC 70 7,319 70.275 0.275
2009 16 East Lake GC 70 7,304 70.550 0.550
2008 15 East Lake GC 70 7,304 70.983 0.983

The course isn't gimmicky but rather just a straightforward test of skill, and that means we need our golfers to have no holes in their games, and the winner averaged 11.5 under par since 2004. Five of the past six winners were at least 10 under par.

Key Stats

These stats stand out as the most important for navigating East Lake GC.

Key Stats for the TOUR Championship at East Lake GC
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda
Birdie or Better Rate
Driving Accuracy

The past results suggest to play this one pretty direct, giving a lot of weight to strokes gained: tee to green. As usual, strokes gained: approach has been the most important non-putting stat at East Lake since 2010.

Putting is never easy to predict, but given that we have Bermuda greens, we can at least check out which golfers have fared well on Bermuda in the past via FutureOfFantasy and FantasyGolfMetrics.

Birdies are just as vital to fantasy scoring on FanDuel, and with a no-cut event, 72 holes offer a lot of scoring chances, so we need birdie-makers. Winners have posted a birdie or better rate of 27% since 2004, via FantasyGolfMetrics.

FutureOfFantasy notes that East Lake has hard-to-hit fairways, and winners have hit 62% of fairways here since 2004, compared to 55% for the full field.

Course History Studs

Via datagolf, Paul Casey (+2.85) leads the field in adjusted strokes gained average at this course since 2010. He's posted three straight top-five finishes here. Casey withdrew last week after three rounds.

Rory McIlroy comes in second at +2.71. Rory won here in 2016 after finishing 16th, 2nd, and 10th. He didn't play here last year.

Justin Rose (+2.29) is third and has posted six straight top-10 finishes (he didn't play here in 2016, though).

Jason Day (+2.01) is fourth but has tapered off of late, finishing 14th, 4th, 10th, W/D, and 17th since 2013.

Dustin Johnson (+1.62) ranks fifth. He finished 17th last year but was 6th, 5th, 5th, and 10th in his four prior tries.