Daily Fantasy Golf Helper for the Shell Houston Open
By now, you've probably dabbled in daily fantasy sports, but if not, don't worry. Now is a great time to start, especially with FanDuel now offering a brand new sport: PGA golf.
Golf can be one of the most exciting DFS sports to follow, as tournaments span four days and allow ample time to prepare each week, so be sure to familiarize yourself with the basics of building a lineup on FanDuel, the scoring setup, and advanced stats to know about the PGA.
But whether you're brand new to the PGA or daily fantasy sports in general, we have you covered.
Let's take a look at some golfers to target for the Shell Houston Open at Houston Golf Course.
Stats to Target
Based on the course makeup and field for GC Houston, these are some of the most vital stats to target this week. For a more detailed explanation why, check out our course primer for this week.
|Key Stats for the Shell Houston Open at GC Houston|
|Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green|
|Greens in Regulation Percentage|
So, who has the right combination of stats, recent form, course history, and salary this week?
Best of the Best
Jordan Spieth (FanDuel Price: $10,500) - It's Jordan Spieth. There isn't really more that needs to be said. He's a 6/1 favorite to win this tournament outright, per Bovada, with the news that Dustin Johnson is not participating this weekend. Spieth is first on the PGA Tour in greens in regulation percentage and bogey avoidance as well as second in birdie-or-better percentage and strokes gained: approach the green. And at $10,500, he's really not priced up too high relative to the other front-runners.
In tournaments, though, don't be afraid to fade Spieth and even target Henrik Stenson, who has three top fives in his past five events here with no missed cuts.
Jon Rahm ($10,200) - It's hard to get a feel for how popular Rahm will be, given how close he is in price to Spieth, but you can't really argue with the current form. Rahm hasn't missed a cut this year, and has a first, a T16, a T5, a T3, and a 2 in his past five PGA events. He sits 21st on the tour in driving distance and in greens in regulation. He's top 20 in scrambling, birdie-or-better percentage, bogey avoidance, strokes gained: tee-to-green, off-the-tee, and approach-the-green. At 10/1, he's second only to Spieth in win odds, and he makes for a strong tournament pivot if you want to fade Spieth a week before the Masters.
Phil Mickelson ($9,300) - Mickelson's track record here speaks for itself. Since winning in 2011, he's been tied for: 4th, 16th, 12th, 17th, and 13th. That's six straight top 17s. His only missed cut since 2008 was in 2009. He's 20/1 to win outright, and he might not even care about winning this one. Mickelson is fine-tuning his game for the Masters this week, and he looks like a safe bet to play four rounds as a result. Mickelson ranks fourth on the tour in birdie-or-better percentage but is second only to Spieth in the field.
Rickie Fowler ($9,500) - Fowler posts great stats. There's no denying that. He's top 40 on the tour in driving distance (25th), driving accuracy (40th), good drive percentage (36th), greens in regulation percentage (32nd), scrambling (1st), birdie-or-better (35th), bogey avoidance (4th), strokes gained: tee-to-green (11th), strokes gained: approach-the-green (12th), strokes gained: around-the-green (38th), and strokes gained: putting (11th). Whew. He's 14/1 to win, the fourth-highest odds of anyone in the field, for a reason. Fowler is a solid discount off of Spieth, and his current form -- a win, a T16, and a 12 -- only solidifies him this week.
J.B. Holmes ($8,400) - Holmes won this event in 2015 after finishing last in the field in driving accuracy. If he were to win it again, it'd probably be a similar result, as he's 210th on the tour in fairways hit and 3rd-worst in the field in driving accuracy. He's still 43rd in driving distance and 22nd in birdie-or-better rate regardless. Despite struggling with his placement off the tee, Holmes sits 25th in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 43rd in putting. He's 33/1 to win outright, and at $8,400, you're spending a lot for a guy who could implode if he can't find the fairway. But the upside is there, especially in a tournament historically won by some longer shots than Holmes is this week.
Charles Howell III ($7,500) - Howell, 50/1 to win outright, has the distance to compete here, as he's 45th in driving distance on the tour this year. He's also a good scrambler (15th) and avoids bogeys (5th). That's probably the bare-bones stat checklist this week, and he meets all of those criteria. It doesn't hurt that he finished T19 in 2011, T10 in 2013, T5 in 2015, and T7 in 2016 here in Houston. CHIII has missed only one cut this season, the first event of the year back in October. His past two results are just T49 and T52, but in 2017, he's also got a T15, a T2, and a T8.
Russell Henley ($6,900) - Henley has the course form in his favor here, notching a T45 in 2013. He has three top-sevens in the past three years. Henley ranks 29th on the PGA Tour in driving distance and is 25th in bogey avoidance. He's 33/1 to win, tied for eighth. His DraftKings salary is in line with that, as he's the 11th-most expensive golfer there. On FanDuel, however, he's tied for the 23rd-highest salary, giving us some value. In 2017, Henley has a T13, a missed cut, a T16, T43, T9, and T45 to his name. That gives him course history, stats, odds, and recent form entering the tournament.
Charley Hoffman ($7,000) - Hoffman's recent performance has been up-and-down (T24, missed cut, T4, missed cut, T2). But two top-fours at the Genesis Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational aren't bad at all. And really, you're looking for any reason you can to trust Hoffman, considering his course history. He's 11 for 11 on made cuts at Houston in his career, and since 2011, he has six top 37s. The stat profile isn't anything stellar (particularly his 202nd rank in scrambling) but he is 20th in strokes gained: off-the-tee and 37th in birdie-or-better percentage. At 50/1, he's tied for 16th in win odds and is 14th in DraftKings pricing. He's tied for 21st on FanDuel, though.
Lucas Glover ($6,400) - Glover's stat profile is on point. He's 52nd in driving distance, 36th in driving accuracy, 26th in good drive percentage, 9th in greens in regulation percentage, 16th in bogey avoidance, 10th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and 15th in strokes gained off-the-tee and approach. The scrambling is a bit of a concern, where he ranks just 109th. But at $6,400 (31st-most expensive on FanDuel), you're getting a discount. Glover is the 15th-priciest golfer on DraftKings this week and is 66/1 to win (21st). And that's all before factoring in nine straight made cuts and three top 30s in his past three events.
Kyle Stanley ($5,600) - Stanley is a guy the stats point to. He's 48th on the tour in distance, 15th in accuracy, 17th in good drive percentage, 10th in greens in regulation, 35th in scrambling, 26th in bogey avoidance, 5th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and 10th in strokes gained: approach-the-green. He's tied for 27th in DraftKings pricing but tied for 54th on FanDuel. At 100/1, he's not a great threat to win outright, but he shouldn't kill you in Rounds 1-2.
Patrick Cantlay ($5,700) - Cantlay, coming off a T2 at the Valspar and is tied for the 10th-best odds to win this event outright at 40/1. You can probably tell where this is headed. Cantlay is the 12th-most expensive golfer on DraftKings for the Shell Houston Open, but he's tied for 49th on FanDuel. That's some serious arbitrage. Recency bias could be driving the odds and DraftKings pricing, but he's too cheap on FanDuel by comparison not to mention.
Jim Herman ($5,000) - Herman, last year's winner, is really cheap and has decent enough current form to use as a punt play in the opening rounds. He was T27 at the Honda Classic, T3 at the Valspar, and T45 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His odds have dropped from 80/1 to 100/1, but you don't need a win here.