League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC 6/27/20

FanDuel is offering League of Legends daily fantasy, and look, if you don't know what that is, it's okay.

I have you covered with a detailed but straightforward primer to get you all set up whether you're a DFS player looking to dig into the new sport or a League of Legends fan ready to take your action over to FanDuel.

Let's break down the LEC slate for Saturday, June 27th, which locks at 11:00 am Eastern, and see who stands out.

The Slate

The LEC format features a single game played in each matchup, so there are no win bonuses for ending a series early.

The table below shows a team's adjusted net tower differential and their projected win odds, based on simulations I run. The raw data comes from Oracle's Elixir and references the summer split, which is a small sample of five games. I also account for spring performance in the simulations.

We've got some real firecracker matches lined up for Saturday with G2 Esports against Fnatic and Rogue against MAD Lions. There's another close -- less exciting -- matchup projected between Misfits and Excel.

The big favorite, as you can see, is Origen against FC Schalke, who are just getting decimated by everyone. Excel Esports beat them with a kill score of 16-1 on Friday, and Schalke failed to take a single tower. Woof.

ADC

Upset (Origen; $10,100) - Upset is the priciest play on the whole slate, but with G2 going up against Fnatic, we don't have to get too cute here by avoiding Origen's AD carry. FC Schalke hasn't put up much of a fight all split, and Origen have been an above-average squad by adjusted net towers. Upset leads all ADC in champion damage per minute in the split, and there's really no reason to overthink this one. The Neon/Dreams bot-lane for FC Schalke hasn't fared well since taking over for Innaxe/Nukes. Kobbe (Misfits; $8,800) and Crownshot (SK Gaming; $8,400) are super cheap picks and are enticing if you think Schalke pressures Origen and that G2/Fnatic sticks too close for either Rekkles (Fnatic; $9,600) or PERKZ ($9,900) to pay off.

Others to Consider: Rekkles (Fnatic; $9,600), Kobbe (Misfits; $8,800), Crownshot (SK Gaming; $8,400)

Mid

ZaZee (SK Gaming; $7,700) - Mid-laner is crucial to hit, just like with ADC, but the pricing is really wonky given the split. Nukeduck is affordable for Origen at just $9,000, but ZaZee is nearly free against Team Vitality. ZaZee ranks second among mid-laners in KDA (kill/death/assist ratio). Milica, ZaZee's lane opponent, has died 12 times through six games, and SK Gaming rate out as a pretty heavy favorite, all things considered. ZaZee is a fine mid-lane pick while you plug Nukeduck (Origen; $9,000), Caps (G2 Esports; $8,900), or Nemesis (Fnatic; $8,500) into your MVP slot or build Origen stacks.

Others to Consider: Nukeduck (Origen; $9,000), Caps (G2 Esports; $8,900), Nemesis (Fnatic; $8,500)

Top

Alphari (Origen; $8,400) - Alphari is the second-most expensive top-laner, but at $8,400, he's affordable, and he's also viable in an MVP slot or as the second top-laner if you go for the ceiling of Wunder (G2 Esports; $8,500) or Bwipo (Fnatic; $8,100) if you take a stand on that juggernaut game. Alphari entered the third weekend of LEC action tied for second among top laners in kills (13) and first in kill participation for his team (71.0%). Odoamne, his top-lane matchup, has a kill/death/assist tally of 2/19/10 and went 0/3/0 against a not-great Excel Esports team on Friday.

Others to Consider: Wunder (G2 Esports; $8,500), Jenax (SK Gaming; $7,400), Orome (MAD Lions; $7,900)

Jungle

Shad0w (MAD Lions; $8,000) - MAD Lions rate out as favorites for me, despite their matchup against Rogue, who are 4-1, same as MAD Lions. But when we adjust for opponents faced and tower differentials (big wins matter in the sense of showing which teams dominated in League, so winning by 8 towers is significantly better than winning by 1 tower), MAD Lions (4.09) are a better team than Rogue (1.83). Shad0w's 14 kills entering the weekend put him second among junglers (third is tied with 9). Kills are vital in daily fantasy, and Shad0w will need to disrupt Rogue's bottom lane in order to come through with a win.

Others to Consider: Xerxe (Origen; $8,700), Selfmade (Fnatic; $8,200), Trick (SK Gaming; $7,600)

Support

Mikyx (G2 Esports; $7,800) - I've been off the G2/Fnatic matchup so far, and it's not because it's not a good fantasy matchup but rather that it's vital we hit the winner for maximum fantasy points. My sims and my heart point to G2, and so Mikyx, even at his salary, is in play as a support pick. He stacks with PERKZ in the bottom lane, and Mikyx has just been -- by far -- the most productive LEC support since the start of the spring split (25.39 FanDuel points per game with nobody else above 18.98). In case G2/Fnatic gets bloody and lasts forever, Mikyx just has a ceiling that few supports can get close to.

Others to Consider: Destiny (Origen; $7,900), Kaiser (MAD Lions, $7,300), Vander (Rogue, $7,100)

Teams

With teams, it's best to treat them as a position you don't build around or punt with. Put another way: don't force it, but don't ignore it. Kind of like defense in NFL DFS. You should target the biggest favorites you can within your salary cap.

Origen ($7,900) are pricey but are nearly locked into a win, so if you take the savings offered elsewhere, then they're worth it. SK Gaming ($7,200) are favorites, and they just beat G2 on Friday.

Others to Consider: G2 Esports ($7,800), Misfits Gaming ($7,500)