League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC 6/26/20
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Let's break down the LEC slate for Friday, June 26th, which locks at 12:00 Eastern, and see who stands out.
The LEC format features a single game played in each matchup, so there are no win bonuses for ending a series early.
The table below shows a team's adjusted net tower differential and their projected win odds, based on simulations I run. The raw data comes from Oracle's Elixir and references the summer split, which is a small sample of five games. I also account for spring performance in the simulations.
|Team||Opponent||Adj. Tower Differential
(Summer Split Only)
|G2 Esports||SK Gaming||0.51||74.7%|
|Excel Esports||FC Schalke 04 Esports||-0.43||72.9%|
|Misfits Gaming||Team Vitality||-1.70||52.3%|
|Team Vitality||Misfits Gaming||-0.67||47.7%|
|FC Schalke 04 Esports||Excel Esports||-8.27||27.0%|
|SK Gaming||G2 Esports||1.58||25.1%|
G2 Esports won both games last weekend, each by a tower differential of 8. That includes wins over the lowly FC Schalke but also an upstart Rogue team that had been 4-0. They're heavy favorites over SK Gaming.
Excel Esports are a mere 1-4 but face the dreadful Schalke squad, which changed its bottom lane for the second weekend and doesn't seem to have answers. Excel beat SK Gaming comfortably to end last weekend.
Rogue have been a better squad than Fnatic by opponent-adjusted tower differential, but Fnatic's spring dominance puts them ahead in win odds pretty comfortably. It could be a bit of a stay-away with easier matches to predict.
MAD Lions, this split's best team (one that's on a 4-0 win streak since dropping their opener to G2), face an Origen team with a lopsided start to the split. No match featuring OG has been closer than seven towers.
Misfits and Team Vitality can give us some value if we predict the outcome correctly, but it's a bit too close for me to want to load up on it either way. We have better options.
Patrik (Excel Esports; $9,400) - You can't afford to miss your ADC pick, so it's always scary to spend down. That being said, we have a good price on Patrik, whose Excel Esports squad has faced a difficult schedule thus far with matches against Rogue, MAD Lions, Fnatic, Origen, and SK Gaming. Against the weakest of those squads, SK Gaming, Patrik popped off for a 10/2/4 (kills/deaths/assists) line. Despite the difficult matchups, Patrik ranks third in the split at the position in experience differential at 10 minutes (and Neon and Innaxe are well below average). A big game at $9,400 from Patrik will really set you up for success, but if you just go with the pricier favorites, you're going to have a safer lineup.
Others to Consider: PERKZ (G2 Esports; $10,000), Rekkles (Fnatic; $10,200), Carzzy (MAD Lions; $9,700)
Caps (G2 Esports; $9,100) - Caps hasn't been quite as dominant in his return to the mid lane as I expected, but don't get me wrong: he has 25 or more FanDuel points in three of five games so far, and he's now a big favorite over SK Gaming. His in-lane opponent, ZaZee, has been great by KDA (7.8 kills and assists per death) but has been at a gold, experience, and creep score disadvantage at 10 minutes on average. There's a good enough chance of a snowball game to pay up for Caps in the mid lane.
Others to Consider: FEBIVEN (Misfits Gaming; $8,900), Nemsis (Fnatic; $9,200), Nukeduck (Origen; $8,200)
Alphari (Origen; $8,000) - Alphari is off to a great start to the summer split. He ranks first among top-laners in champion damage per minute and has been a wave dominator with an average creep score differential of 20.8 at 10 minutes (nobody else is above 6.6). He's second in KDA (4.9) and tied for second in overall kills (13) among top-laners. For the price, he's very viable. He has yet to fall shy of 16.04 FanDuel points and has spike games of 28.04 and 34.24 FanDuel points.
Others to Consider: Wunder (G2 Esports; $8,700), Bwipo (Fnatic; $8,600), Dan Dan (Misfits Gaming; $8,300)
Shad0w (MAD Lions; $8,300) - Shad0w is a slight favorite for me over Origen, and that keeps him in play. Junglers have shown to be a little less win-dependent than mid-laners and AD carries anyway. MAD Lions are third in jungle control rate, and Origen are eighth. That's not a shot at Xerxe, per se, but there could be some value here on Shad0w, who has been red hot during MAD Lions' four-game win streak: 23.88, 32.80, 20.88, and 40.34 FanDuel points.
Others to Consider: Jankos (G2 Esports; $8,700), Selfmade (Fnatic; $8,800), Caedrel (Excel Esports; $8,000)
Kaiser (MAD Lions; $7,700) - Kaiser has been insanely productive during MAD Lions' four-game win streak: 37.54, 25.94, 19.00, and 39.84. Those are just crazy numbers for a support. Kaiser leads supports in kills (8; second is at 6), gold differential at 10 minutes (339; second is at 170), experience differential at 10 minutes (330; second is at 231), and creep score differential at 10 minutes (24.4; second is at 2.4) and is tied for first in assists (48; third is at 38). He stacks perfectly with Carzzy.
Others to Consider: Mikyx (G2 Esports; $7,900), Hylissang (Fnatic; $7,900), Tore (Excel Esports; $7,100)
With teams, it's best to treat them as a position you don't build around or punt with. Put another way: don't force it, but don't ignore it. Kind of like defense in NFL DFS. You should target the biggest favorites you can within your salary cap.
Excel Esports ($7,400) are favored over Schalke, so we can take some savings there. The next cheapest favorite in my sims is MAD Lions ($7,600).
Others to Consider: G2 Esports ($7,800), Origen ($7,300)