League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC 6/20/20
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Let's break down the LEC slate for Saturday, June 20th, which starts at 11am Eastern, and see who stands out.
The LEC format features a single game played in each matchup, so there are no win bonuses for ending a series early.
The table below shows a team's adjusted net tower differential and their projected win odds, based on simulations I run. The raw data comes from Oracle's Elixir and references the summer split, which is a small sample. I also account for spring performance in the simulations.
|Team||Opponent||Adj. Tower Differential||Win%|
|Misfits Gaming||FC Schalke 04||-0.80||72.7%|
|SK Gaming||Excel Esports||3.75||60.9%|
|MAD Lions||Team Vitality||2.97||56.3%|
|Team Vitality||MAD Lions||0.45||43.6%|
|Excel Esports||SK Gaming||-2.99||39.0%|
|FC Schalke 04||Misfits Gaming||-7.59||27.1%|
The small sample of the summer split looks pretty wild in adjusted towers, as powerhouse G2 are only 2-2 after a 1-3 start. They got back on track with a win over FC Schalke on Friday by a tower score of 9-1.
Misfits Gaming, despite a 1-3 record, should get back in the win column against FC Schalke on Saturday, though Misfits were dismantled 19-3 in kills by SK Gaming (and 9-1 in towers) on Friday. FC Schalke, however, subbed out their starting bottom lane (Innaxe and Nukes) for Neon and Dreams against G2 on Friday. Neither team is exactly looking great.
Fnatic had Origen's number last playoffs (with a 3-1 series win), and Origen finished the first weekend 1-2 before handling lowly Excel Esports on Friday. Fnatic look super strong early in the split but did lose to MAD Lions on Friday.
In all, we have some interesting games for Saturday's slate.
Crownshot (SK Gaming; $9,500) - SK Gaming are 3-1 to start the split and have beaten two playoff teams from the spring (Origen and Misfits). They also beat FC Schalke and lost to another spring playoff team, MAD Lions. Crownshot gives us some savings from the true top-tier options in Rekkles (Fnatic; $10,200 and PERKZ; $10,000). Through four games, Crownshot has a 5.0 KDA (kill/death/assist ratio) with an average line of 3.5/1.8/5.3 (kills/deaths/assists). He is 8th among 11 AD Carries so far in creep score per minute, but SK Gaming is a pretty solid favorite over Excel Esports, who are 0-4 and lost in 32 minutes to Origen on Friday with a tower score of 11-4 and a kill score of 14-4.
Others to Consider: Rekkles (Fnatic; $10,200), PERKZ (G2 Esports; $10,000), Kobbe (Misfits Gaming; $9,800)
Larssen (Rogue; $8,100) - Larssen comes in very cheap for a mid-laner, let alone one on a team that is 4-0. Of course, Rogue will have their hands full with Caps ($9,100) and G2. That being said, Caps does a ton of roaming and actually has the lowest creep score per minute score among all mid-laners so far this split. Larssen? He's first. He should have a high floor due to the creep score possibilities, and Larssen has the best KDA (15.7) of any mid-laner in the summer split right now. Even if Rogue lose, he can pay off at a cheap tag, and he and Caps are in play for a duo mid-lane lineup.
Others to Consider: Nemesis (Fnatic; $9,200), Caps (G2 Esports; $9,100), ZaZee (SK Gaming; $8,500)
Jenax (SK Gaming; $8,000) - Jenax is a salary saver who opens up a ton, especially if you consider Larssen in the mid-lane. SK Gaming should handle Excel Esports well, and Jenax will have an in-lane matchup with Kryze, who has had a poor start to his LEC split. Kryze has an average line of 1.0/2.3/0.8 for a KDA of 0.78, which is ninth among 10 top-laners so far this split. Jenax is second in kills per game among top-laners (3.3). He and SK could steamroll, allowing you to spend up for G2, Fnatic, and Misfits stacks.
Others to Consider: Bwipo (Fnatic; $8,600), Wunder (G2 Esports; $8,700), Finn (Rogue; $7,900)
Selfmade (Fnatic; $8,800) - Junglers aren't always worth paying up for, but two of them in particular have just shown a huge opportunity cost over the rest. Selfmade and Jankos (G2 Esports; $8,700) have had elite ceilings relative to other junglers in the LEC. Prior to his matchup with MAD Lions on Friday, Selfmade had averaged a 3.7/0.3/6.0 line, a KDA of 29.0 -- insane. Only one other jungler (Shad0w at 2.7) averaged more than 1.8 kills per game through everyone else's first four games. Selfmade had averaged a 238.7 creep score per game. Only one other jungler (Lurox at 202.8) was above 176. Dude's good.
Others to Consider: Jankos (G2 Esports; $8,700), Shad0w (MAD Lions; $8,300), Trick ($8,200)
Kaiser (MAD Lions; $7,700) - None of the favored supports are cheaper than $7,700, and you can always punt with support, but you're capping your upside if you do. The four ADCs I like most all pair well with their support, but you can also rock with Kaiser (and stack him with Carzzy at $9,700 for some roster rate leverage). Kaiser is second in the split in assists per game (9.0) and has doubled-up all other supports in creep score per game. He's really had some big scores outside of his first game against G2.
Others to Consider: Hylissang (Fnatic; $7,900), LIMIT (SK Gaming; $7,700), Vander (Rogue; $7,000)
With teams, it's best to treat them as a position you don't build around or punt with. Put another way: don't force it, but don't ignore it. Kind of like defense in NFL DFS. You should target the biggest favorites you can within your salary cap.
Misfits ($7,700) should be able to fend off FC Schalke and send them to 0-5 while getting to 2-3 themselves. That should bring with it some positive roster leverage, as well. Team Vitality ($7,200) are just worse than a coin flip to win in my sims and are the most appealing punt option among teams.
Others to Consider: Fnatic ($7,900), SK Gaming ($7,500), Team Vitality ($7,200)