League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC 6/19/20
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Let's break down the LEC slate for Friday, June 19th, which locks at 12:00 Eastern, and see who stands out.
The LEC format features a single game played in each matchup, so there are no win bonuses for ending a series early.
The table below shows a team's adjusted net tower differential and their projected win odds, based on simulations I run. The raw data comes from Oracle's Elixir and references the summer split, which is a small sample. I also account for spring performance in the simulations.
|Team||Opponent||Adj. Tower Differential|
(Summer Split Only)
|G2 Esports||FC Schalke 04||-4.34||87.2%|
|Misfits Gaming||SK Gaming||1.23||61.2%|
|SK Gaming||Misfits Gaming||0.89||38.7%|
|FC Schalke 04||G2 Esports||-6.65||12.5%|
G2 Esports started off the split slowly with a 1-2 start, including losses to Origen and Team Vitality after beating MAD Lions in their opener. I'm accounting for summer split play, sure, but I'm not treating G2 as the 9th-best team in the LEC based on their first three games.
Two more spring playoff teams (Origen and Misfits Gaming) are also 1-2, and the LEC feels a little stiffer this split than last. Heck, Team Vitality is 2-1 already after going 2-16 last split. We should embrace some added volatility for now.
Upset (Origen; $9,100) - This is a super cheap price for Upset, who put up 28.58, 35.0, and 11.66 FanDuel points to start the split. He did that against, respectively, SK Gaming, G2, and Misfits, who rank pretty decently against bot-laners so far this split. Excel Esports, Origen's Week 2, Day 1 opponent have allowed 28.8 FanDuel points per game to opposing AD Carries to start the summer split, second-most. Upset leads the AD Carries in creep score per match to start the split. He also is second in damage per minute, as he was last split. This is a rare chance for an ADC at a price like this.
Others to Consider: Rekkles (Fnatic; $10,200), PERKZ (G2 Esports; $10,100), Hans sama (Rogue; $9,700)
Caps (G2 Esports; $9,100) - Caps is off to a slow start overall in his return to the mid lane. He's seventh in kill/death/assist ratio (KDA) at 3.3 and dead last in gold differential at 10 minutes. However, Schalke have been steamrolled to start the split and have allowed 32.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing mids. Abbedagge himself actually leads the split in gold differential at 10 minutes but has been decimated in KDA (1.2). This should be a get-right spot for G2 and Caps as they look to get back to .500 and send Schalke to an 0-4 start. I'm just trusting the elite talent here at a reasonable salary.
Others to Consider: Nemesis (Fnatic; $9,300), Larssen (Rogue; $8,800), Nukeduck (Origen; $8,200)
Alphari (Origen; $8,000) - Origen, as a team, are underpriced here. The spring split's 3 seed is off to that 1-2 start, sure, but they face Excel Esports, who are 0-3. Opposing top-laners have averaged 22.6 FanDuel points against Excel to start the summer split. Alphari has attained 12 kills through three games, making him the only top-laner with double-digit kills so far. Kryze, Excel's new top-laner, is a combined 4/8/0 (kills/deaths/assists) in the split. He has led in creep score per minute among tops, yet Alphari is third and should be able to harass the newcomer, as Alphari ranks third in damage per minute among tops.
Others to Consider: Bwipo (Fnatic; $8,700), Wunder (G2 Esports; $8,600), Finn (Rogue; $8,300)
Selfmade (Fnatic; $8,800) - Selfmade has a KDA split of 11/1/18, giving him a KDA of 29.0. Usually, I refer to that as a video game stat line, but that's lost in translation here. I don't love the matchup with MAD Lions, as Shad0w is a strong jungler and leads the split in gold differential at 10 minutes, but Selfmade has been a super consistent option dating back to last split. He has 26.72, 31.32, and 24.28 FanDuel points in the summer. We can spend up for the upside due to Origen's pricing.
I don't want to forget about Jankos ($8,700) entirely, but he has just one kill through three games. Schalke, with a new jungler (Lurox), rank last in the summer in jungle control. A G2 stack is very appealing.
Others to Consider: Jankos (G2 Esports; $8,700), Inspired (Rogue; $8,500), Xerxe (Origen; $7,900)
Doss (Misfits Gaming; $7,100) - Misfits are just 1-2 but rate out with a positive adjusted tower differential. They've got a new bottom lane with Kobbe at ADC and Doss at support. Doss' stats aren't outstanding, but his price is. Doss has died 12 times, 3 more than any other support so far in the split but also has 18 assists, good for sixth. With Doss, we get access to a support on a likely winning team at a tag low enough to roster Fnatic's and G2's stars. Can't ask for much more than that from a support.
Others to Consider: Mikyx (G2 Esports; $7,900), Vander (Rogue; $7,800), Destiny (Origen; $7,400)
With teams, it's best to treat them as a position you don't build around or punt with. Put another way: don't force it, but don't ignore it. Kind of like defense in NFL DFS. You should target the biggest favorites you can within your salary cap.
Unsurprisingly, Origen ($7,200) look like a steal here for me, so long as we can trust them to return to their spring form. Excel Esports are a stellar matchup for them.
Others to Consider: Fnatic ($7,900), G2 Esports ($7,800), Misfits Gaming ($7,100)