CS:GO Daily Fantasy Helper: DreamHack Masters Spring, 6/3/20
With a lot of traditional sports on hold for now, esports has taken the front seat in DFS, and we now have Counter-Strike: Global Offensive to play on FanDuel. Affectionately known as CS:GO, two teams of five players compete on each map until one team reaches 16 rounds. Most series are played as a best-of-three and will feature teams from the DreamHack Masters Spring 2020 in North America and Europe.
If you are new to esports DFS or CS:GO DFS, take a look at the introduction piece with a rundown of format and scoring. All matches are best-of-three, and players will receive a bonus for completing a 2-0 sweep.
Another week and another CS:GO slate starting, which means we have a new set of matchups to breakdown. The DreamHack Masters Spring event is in action, with an Oceania series, a European series, and a North American series.
For those unfamiliar with these teams, this is the DreamHack Oceania qualifier and we have four teams all ranked from 39th to 87th in the world. Renegades are 39th, ORDER are 68th, AVANT are 81st, and Chiefs are 87th. This isn't top-tier Counter-Strike, but the DFS aspect remains the same.
ORDER vs. Avant Gaming
Starting with ORDER, they actually come in as the underdog in this matchup -- a 47.6% implied win percentage -- against Avant Gaming but can still be viewed as viable fantasy options for this slate. Most recently, ORDER finished in second place during the ESL Road to Rio, losing to Renegades in the finals.
Rickeh ($12,000) comes in averaging 21 kills per map over his last 23 maps played, with a kill-to-death differential sitting at +147. He has the most kills on ORDER during this time, is averaging the most kills per map during this time, and has the fourth-highest Headshot (HS) percentage over these 23 maps.
aliStair ($11,000) isn't too far behind Rickeh when it comes to average kills per map -- sitting with an average of 20.2 -- along with a kill-to-death differential at +125. aliStair and Rickeh are the only players on ORDER who are averaging over 20 kills per map -- you want them in your lineups.
J1rah ($9,700) is an almost non-factor for ORDER and not someone you should look towards in DFS. USTILO ($10,500) and Valiance ($10,300) are essentially a coin-flip decision. They are averaging 18.9 and 18.0 kills per map over their last 23 maps played. It's clear this team has a few tiers of players to choose from, with Rickeh and aliStair leading the way.
Despite being ranked lower in the world rankings, Avant are the favorite in this series, and I have trouble buying it. Since the start of the year, these teams have played each other eight times, with a split record of 4-4.
Over the last three months, Avant have played a total of 56 maps. That's the sample size we will be going with, since they have played only 12 maps in the last month.
In terms of production, sterling ($11,700) stands out since he is the only player over these 56 maps to average over 20 kills per map (21.1 to be exact). He has a very low HS% sitting at 28% but comes in with a kill-to-death differential at +389.
If sterling is all the way at the top, ap0c ($9,600) is at the bottom, averaging only 16.7 kills per map, although he has a very solid HS% at 52.6%.
We then find HaZR ($11,000), BL1TZ ($10,400), and ofnu ($9,900) all averaging between 18.4 and 18.9 kills per map over this 56-map sample size. They're in nearly a three-way tie in terms of kills per map, combined with the fact their HS% are all over a 50%. They can all be used in DFS lineups, since they bring a very strong floor of points in every matchup.
Renegades vs. Chiefs ESC
To say the Renegades are the favorite in this series would be an understatement. They come in with an implied win probability of 92.6%, and you should plan on them carrying a significant amount of ownership.
The Renegades made a roster switch at the beginning of the year, and over the past three months, they've only played a total of 19 maps. If we go back further, it wouldn't be the full roster they have now, and results from six months ago aren't too helpful.
Both dexter ($11,800) and INS ($11,200) are averaging over 20 kills per map in this span, and both hold HS% at 47% or higher and have posted over 30 kills. They're two very strong players for a heavy favorite, so yeah, you want some exposure to them as a quick 2-0 could be in order today.
Hatz ($10,000) has the fewest kills in total and the fewest average kills per map over this sample size but holds the highest HS% in this time. Sico ($11,400) only has 24 more kills than malta ($10,100) over this span, but Sico has a +87 kill-to-death differential compared to malta's +29 differential.
As for the Chiefs, they recently made a number of roster changes and have yet to actually play a match with this current starting lineup -- that is why they come in as heavy underdogs. zeph, soju_j, and Vexite are the recently acquired players and are all question marks as of now. To put it simply, you would be going out of your way to roster a full stack of Chiefs players.
Stick with the Renegades in this matchup and then look to the other series to fill out your lineup.
