League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LPL/LCK, Saturday 4/11/20
FanDuel is offering League of Legends daily fantasy, and look, if you don't know what that is, it's okay.
I have you covered with a detailed but straightforward primer to get you all set up whether you're a DFS player looking to dig into the new sport or a League of Legends fan ready to take your action over to FanDuel.
Let's break down the LPL/LCK slate for Saturday, April 11th, and see who stands out. (Just a heads up, the slate locks at 2:00 am Eastern.)
It's a five-game slate split between the LPL and LCK. LPL and LCK matchups are a best-of-three format. Players who win a series in two games will get a 20-point bonus for a game not played. Winning teams get a 15-point bonus for a game not played.
The table shows a team's kill-to-death ratio (K:D) and their net tower score (towers gained versus towers surrendered). All stats are from gol.gg. The last two columns display a team's win and sweep odds based on simulations I've run on the matchups. The table is sorted by projected series win odds, which are based heavily on K:D and net towers.
Note: Due to issues with Riot's server, stats are updated through April 4th.
|Royal Never Give Up||Rogue Warriors||1.26||1.3||77.2%||45.1%|
|KT Rolster||Sandbox Gaming||0.96||0.4||60.3%||24.7%|
|APK Prince||Hanwha Life eSports||0.79||-2.0||52.6%||35.2%|
|Hanwha Life eSports||APK Prince||0.66||-3.2||47.3%||17.6%|
|Sandbox Gaming||KT Rolster||0.91||-0.2||39.6%||22.6%|
|Rogue Warriors||Royal Never Give Up||0.80||-2.3||22.6%||9.9%|
Really, only Royal Never Give Up rank as super big favorites, so we should have some close series on this slate. The LPL and LCK can always bring surprises within a series, but this slate will open up value for us. Only three of the 10 teams rate out with a positive K:D, and one of them (Team WE) face a very good eStar squad.
Betty (Royal Never Give Up; $9,800) - Given the slate, which is light on superstar teams, the most expensive AD Carry is Smlz (OMG; $10,100). Royal Never Give Up are the largest favorites on the slate based on my simulations, and Betty has played every game for RNGU this split.
Betty ranks second among 10 qualified ADCs on the slate in KDA (kill/death/assist ratio) at 6.22, trailing only Wink (eStar; $10,000). His in-lane opponent, ZWuJi ranks seventh. ZWuJi is actually third in KA rate (so just kills and assists per game), which implies a bit of a risky spot for Betty. However, the discrepancy in kills/assists with kills/deaths/assists is obviously the deaths. ZWuJi is slain 2.69 times per game, effectively the highest rate on the slate among AD Carries.
Others to Consider: Wink (eStar; $10,000), Aiming (KT Rolster; $9,700), HyBriD (APK Prince; $9,000)
Cryin (eStar; $9,100) - Cryin and eStar are the second-biggest favorites on the slate, based on my simulations, and they lead the slate in K:D and net towers. Team WE are no pushover, though. Still, Cryin himself looks dominant among qualified mid-laners with a KDA of 6.00. Only Kuro (KT Rolster; $8,200) at 4.11 is above 4.00. Paired with high win odds, Cryin rates out very well at a high-powered position. Even if eStar struggle or get pushed to three games, we're getting a ceiling opportunity for a productive mid-laner. If eStar sweep, then it'll have a lot do with Cryin's performance.
Consider spending for both Cryin and Xiaohu (Royal Never Give Up; $9,000).
Others to Consider: Xiaohu (Royal Never Give Up; $9,000), Yuuki (LGD Gaming; $8,600), Kuro (KT Rolster; $8,200)
ikssu (APK Prince; $7,800) - I was going to stick with eStar and talk up Xiaobai ($8,500), but why not talk about a bigger salary saver? If you're new to League DFS, know that AD Carry and mid lane are the biggest scoring positions for reasons we won't get into here. The other three positions are the places to save, primarily support.
Anyway, ikssu's team, APK Prince, are slight favorites based on my simulations. ikssu himself is only seventh in KDA among nine qualified top-laners on this slate at 2.22. His in-lane opponent, CuVee (Hanwha Life eSports; $8,400) is easily last at 1.70. Both are bottom of the barrel in deaths per game. It could get messy, but ikssu's team playing from ahead would present a value opportunity. It's a risk, but he's in play if you're building a bunch of lineups.
Others to Consider: Langx (Royal Never Give Up; $8,600), Xiaobai (eStar; $8,500), Morgan (Team WE; $8,000)
Wei (eStar; $8,800) - Back to eStar. I wouldn't talk you out of H4cker (OMG; $8,900), but Wei rates out as the best jungle value for me by a good margin. He leads the nine qualified junglers in KDA (5.02 with second being at 4.43) and he leads in KA (13.1 with second being at 11.3). The actual kill share is a bit low (15.3%, eight of nine qualified junglers), yet Wei projects for a high floor in what should be a positive game for eStar.
Others to Consider: XLB (Royal Never Give Up; $8,500), bonO (KT Rolster; $8,200), Flawless (APK Prince; $8,000)
Secret (APK Prince; $7,000) - The better, safer play is to spend up for a support on a larger favorite -- and usually to pair a support with an AD Carry to maximize kill/assist numbers. I want to make that clear. But. Secret is only the minimum salary for a starting support.
Now, he's last in KDA (2.32) among nine qualified supports on the slate but pops up to fifth in KA rate if we exclude the deaths. We can still look to him for a full-on punt or as part of an APK Prince stack, which should be lower owned. Secret and HyBriD (APK Prince; $9,000) would let you do pretty much anything else you wanted with your roster.
Again, spend up if possible at support, but Secret should be fine for the bare minimum.
Others to Consider: ShiauC (eStar; $7,800), Ming ($7,900), TusiN (KT Rolster; $7,300)
With teams, it's best to treat them as a position you don't build around or punt with. Put another way: don't force it, but don't ignore it. Kind of like defense in NFL DFS. You should target the biggest favorites you can within your salary cap and avoid teams destined to lose 0-2.
KT Rolster ($7,700) is the cheapest of the relatively heavy favorites, but we do have APK Prince ($7,000) at minimum salary. They're favored, basically in a coin flip, against Hanwha Life eSports ($7,600). There's risk in punting, but it's an option so that you can maximize your mid and AD Carry picks.
Others to Consider: eStar ($7,900), Royal Never Give Up ($7,800)