League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC, Friday 4/3/20
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Let's break down the LEC slate for Friday, April 3rd and see who stands out.
We have a single-match slate that is best-of-five format between G2 Esports, the LEC's 1 seed, and MAD Lions, the 4 seed.
The table is sorted by differential in Kill:Death ratio, which correlates very strongly to win rate. Other stats listed include gold spend differential (GSD), first baron rate (FBN%), and jungle control (JNG%) as well as each team's opponent mark in the category. These all are tied closely to win rate. All stats are from Oracle's Elixir.
G2 Esports are the 1 seed for a reason. They were the 2019 Mid-Season Invitational (MSI) champion and came runner-up in the world championship last season. The star-studded roster put up a 15-3 spring split record. MAD Lions ended the split at 11-7 but did hand G2 one of their three losses and are 3-3 in matchups against the LEC's big three (G2, Fnatic, and Origen).
Simulating out the series 10,000 times, I have G2 coming out on top 72% of the time, which probably is a little too low in the best-of-five format, but the point here is that this one could stick a little close and give some value on MAD Lions in return.
Players to Target
Star and MVP Picks
Caps (ADC, $16,000), Jankos (Jungle, $15,500), Perkz (Mid, $14,500)- I'm just going to lump the big three together because these three are a cut above the rest of the slate in terms of projected fantasy points over a full five-game split.
All three are top-seven in combined kill/death/assist ratio (KDA) in the split, via Oracle's Elixir, and both Jankos and Perkz lead their respective positions in that stat. MAD Lions rate as a mid-level opponent across all three positions.
I can dig deep into the matchups, but really, there are zero concerns with any of them. Spending all the way up for Caps leaves you with only $11,000 per player for your final four, so he won't be easy to fit in. You can stack Caps with his support, Mikyx ($10,000), to play the correlation angle between ADC and support. Additionally, Caps should come with ownership leverage off of Perkz and Jankos due to the price. Based on value, my projections rank them Perkz, Caps, Jankos.
Carzzy (ADC), MAD Lions ($14,000) - Carzzy is a strong pick if you're expecting the series to go to four or five games even if MAD Lions lose. As an ADC, he is the odds-on favorite to lead his team in fantasy points over multiple games, even in a really tough lane against Caps and G2's support, Mikyx ($10,000). Back in Week 5 against G2, Carzzy popped the hell off with a 5/0/11 (kills/deaths/assists) line on Kalista and led the match with 42.1 FanDuel points. ADCs and mid-laners that lose four-and five-game series still score well enough to justify spending up.
Wunder (Top), G2 Esports ($12,500) - If you want to avoid Caps, Perkz, Jankos, or Carzzy for your Star and MVP picks, you're embracing some more risk than necessary, but Wunder could be a spicy pivot pick. No top laner has dealt more champion damage per minute than Wunder, and Orome, his top-lane opponent, ranks 10th in the split in that metric. In a Week 1 win over MAD Lions, Wunder ranked third in FanDuel points, going 4/3/9 and racking up more than 600 damage per minute.
Orome (Top), MAD Lions ($8,000) - So, I know I just pointed out the discrepancy in the top lane matchup, but a few things here: only one top-laner secures a lower creep score per minute than Orome (7.3). That'd be Wunder (6.8), so maybe in some games, Orome can stick around and stay relevant. Orome went 3/2/9 in Week 5's win over G2 to finish fourth in FanDuel points. In their loss in Week 1, he was 10th among 10 players. It's a risky play, but there is a path to a decent outing for Orome at a low price. And because top lane is so isolated from the rest of the map, stacking trends show that top-lane is the best place to look when playing opponents against your main stack. Mathematically, Orome is the least affected MAD Lions player if G2 rolls.
Kaiser (Support), MAD Lions ($7,500) - You pretty much won't want to play Kaiser unless you're stacking him with Carzzy for some high-end savings, but Kaiser himself has a decent value projection just because of his low salary. Back in MAD Lions' win over G2 earlier this split, Kaiser ranked third in that game in FanDuel points due to a 1/2/16 line. He assisted on or secured 17 of 19 kills that game. This is the benefit of stacking support with AD Carry when things click.