Fantasy Football: 10 Sleepers to Target Late in Your Draft
Matt Breida, RB, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 14.02 (RB57)
The San Francisco 49ers made Jerick McKinnon the league's fourth-highest paid running back by average annual value, so it's safe to assume McKinnon is going to get fed. But there are reasons to wonder if McKinnon will excel in a high-volume role.
That's where Matt Breida comes in. Breida showed enough as a rookie that it's easy to get excited about what he might be able to do if he gets big-time volume.
As a rookie last year, Breida vastly outperformed his 49er teammates, per our metrics. In fact, Brieda was one of the league's best backs on a per-carry basis, according to our in-house Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. Among backs with at least 100 carries in 2017, Breida ranked third in Rushing NEP per attempt.
Breida finished with 465 yards and 2 touchdowns on 105 carries, tacking on 21 grabs, 180 receiving yards and another score through the air.
Again, similar to Ekeler, while the per-touch efficiency is dope, it doesn't mean a whole lot for Breida's 2018 fantasy outlook unless he gets more touches. Breida's easiest path to significant work is for McKinnon to get injured or underperform.
Predicting injuries is a fool's errand so we won't waste time there, but it's not a lock McKinnon performs like an upper-echelon running back since he was pretty poor on the ground on a per-carry basis in each of the past two years, the only two campaigns in which he's seen at least 150 attempts.
| Season | Carries | Yards | Yards Per Carry | Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 159 | 539 | 3.4 | 2 |
| 2017 | 150 | 570 | 3.8 | 3 |
Among the 48 backs to see at least 100 carries in 2017, McKinnon checked in 32nd in yards per carry. In 2016, he ranked 37th in yards per rush among 42 qualified backs. While yards per carry isn't the be-all and end-all, McKinnon's shoddy efficiency in his only high-volume seasons is at least something to note.
In addition to that, McKinnon was never a goal-line guy in Minnesota. Adrian Peterson held that role in McKinnon's first two years, but even in the last two seasons, when Peterson was hurt (2016) or gone (2017), McKinnon mustered just five rushing scores despite seeing a good amount of work, and he's got a mere 7 career rushing touchdowns on 474 total carries. It's not out of the question that McKinnon doesn't hog goal-line touches with the 49ers, which would be another plus in Breida's corner.
Let's be clear, though -- money talks and McKinnon will likely get every chance to be a three-down dude for the Niners. Whether or not McKinnon can thrive in that role remains to be seen.
With a full season of Jimmy Garoppolo under center, our metrics peg San Fran to have the league's ninth-best offense, so the 49ers are a team we want exposure to. The Niners have an underwhelming receiver depth chart, which is currently led by Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon, so there could be room for both Breida and McKinnon to get ample touches, especially in the passing game.
Even if McKinnon succeeds in his first year in the Bay Area, Breida looks like one of the league's better backup running backs, and he's worth keeping on your bench as a high-upside stash.
