3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 8/16/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jeimer Candelario To Hit a Home Run (+480)
The Chicago Cubs are one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league and are always capable of putting up some home runs.
The Cubbies have a slate-high 5.94 implied run total at home where we see the wind blowing out tonight. This is always a great boost for hitters and something we should be looking for on a nightly basis -- especially for home runs.
They will be going up against Mike Clevinger, who has allowed a .439 SLG, 6.37 xFIP, 1.66 HR/9, and a massive 60.5% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters this season. The combination of that fly ball rate plus the wind blowing out tonight could spell disaster for Clevinger.
We'll look to Jeimer Candelario, who is rocking with a 139 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .247 ISO, 37.6% fly-ball rate, and 16.5% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers this season. It's a great matchup for several of the Cubs' hitters but Candelario brings a good combo of underlying stats and odds.
As usual, I'm adding Candelario To Record an RBI (+130), too.
Luis Castillo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)
Luis Castillo has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the league and has a great matchup to continue that trend tonight.
Castillo has an elite 28.2% strikeout rate, 15.4% swinging-strike rate, and 29.6% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate this season. He has put all of that on display recently by being over this 6.5 mark in four of his last five starts, including outings of 11 and 9 strikeouts.
That level of production is viable tonight given the matchup against the Kansas City Royals, who come in with a 23.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (12th-worst in the league). The free-swinging Royals present a good matchup for Castillo to continue doing his thing and pile up the punchouts.
Justin Turner To Record an RBI (+125)
The Boston Red Sox offense has been putting up some runs lately, and we should look to capture that via player props.
They are going up against the Washington Nationals, who will have MacKenzie Gore on the hill. A 4.95 implied run total for the Red Sox is a good indication the runs will be crossing the plate, and that leads us to Justin Turner.
Turner has been solid versus southpaws this season with a 144 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .298 BABIP, .270 ISO, 44.0% fly-ball rate, and 44.0% hard-contact rate. Those are super solid from top to bottom and puts Turner in generally good matchups against any lefty pitcher.
When it comes to Gore, he allows a .442 SLG, 4.06 xFIP, .282 BABIP, 1.72 HR/9, 41.2% fly-ball rate, and 36.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.
It's no doubt a tough matchup for Gore, which puts Turner in a spot to produce tonight.
