4 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/9/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Sean Murphy To Hit a Home Run (+390)
Ozzie Albies To Hit a Home Run (+520)

The Atlanta Braves are rocking a slate-high 5.31 implied run total and are always capable of pushing past that quickly with the power in their offense.

It's been the same story for a few seasons when it comes to the Braves' offense; they have a ton of power, and seeing multiple home runs every night shouldn't be a surprise. That should be on full display tonight with a matchup against Nick Pivetta on tap, so let's look at some home run props.

When it comes to Pivetta, he is struggling against both lefties and righties this season, so it doesn't matter who he is facing. Against righties, he is allowing a .418 SLG, 4.88 xFIP, 1.53 HR/9, 47.1% fly-ball rate, and a 39.2% hard-contact rate. Against lefties, he is allowing a .588 SLG, 3.90 xFIP, 2.77 HR/9, 41.2% fly-ball rate, and a 41.2% hard-contact rate.

We'll start with Sean Murphy, who comes in with a 167 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .338 ISO, 44.7% fly-ball rate, and 38.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Murphy has been great in righty versus righty matchups this season with six of his nine home runs coming against them.

Next up, we have Ozzie Albies, who has a 68 wRC+, .275 wOBA, .205 ISO, 35.7% fly-ball rate, and 25.7% hard-contact rate. His stats at first glance don't look great, but he has the ISO for power, and five of his nine homers have come off of right-handed pitchers this season. The game-to-game consistency might not be there for Albies, but the power certainly is.

It's a great matchup for their offense, and we should see plenty of runs on the board tonight. Of course, I'm adding Murphy To Record an RBI (+110) and Albies To Record an RBI (+150).

Jack Flaherty Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+124)

Betting unders on strikeouts isn't always exciting, but it's often the right play.

That's what we have tonight with Jack Flaherty of the St. Louis Cardinals, who has a tougher matchup against the Chicago Cubs. At one point in time, Flaherty was an ace-level pitcher, but a set of injuries has somewhat derailed his career trajectory.

He comes into tonight with a modest 23.4% strikeout rate, 14.3% walk rate, 4.95 xFIP, and 11.7% swinging-strike rate. None of that is truly threatening on the mound, and we've seen that on display for most of this season where he has recorded fewer than six strikeouts in four of his seven starts.

When it comes to the Cubs' lineup, they are rather disciplined at the plate with a 21.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (23rd in the league). This is not a high-strikeout lineup, and with a pitcher who is clearly struggling on the mound, this is clear for the under tonight.

Will Smith To Record an RBI (+120)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a 4.89 implied run total tonight and a clear-cut matchup against Eric Lauer.

This is about as straightforward of a matchup as you can imagine tonight, and I'm not thinking twice about it. Will Smith wasn't in the Dodgers' lineup yesterday and should be back in there tonight.

This season, Lauer is allowing a .388 wOBA, .525 SLG, 5.09 xFIP, 10.5% walk rate, 1.82 HR/9, 46.8% fly-ball rate, and 41.6% hard-contact rate against right-handed hitters. It hasn't been a great start to the season for Lauer, and I doubt things will be getting better after a matchup against the Dodgers' offense.

Smith is rocking a 104 wRC+, .325 wOBA, 0.00% strikeout rate, 42.9 fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. He's going to be hitting in the middle of the Dodgers' lineup and is primed to knock in some runs.