Questions
Who would you rather have in a Keeper league Brees or Newton?
1pt per 10 yrds Passing or rushing 6pts per passing or rushing TD
  • 1
    T C (500 Reputation Points)
    I think I'd lean Newton on this one, if only because I would expect regression by Brees. People shouldn't be so quick to pencil him in for 650 attempts and 5k yards...the team just gutted its roster of pass catchers and spent an entire draft on defense (and one tackle). The Graham trade I get but if the Kenny Stills deal isn't a clear signal of a paradigm shift in offensive game plan I don't know what is.
  • 0
    Matt Basta (500 Reputation Points)
    With passing yards and TDs counting the same as rushing, the points are heavily in the favor of Brees. Assume a 10% regression in yards for Brees and a 15% regression in TDs. That puts him at 446 points for passing yards and 168 points for passing TDs (614 total points assuming his rushing stats cancel out his ints). Cam's passing has regressed each of the past 3 years, but let's assume he gets a 10% bump in passing yards (3,440 = 344 points) and he gets a 15% bump in TDs, which would jump him up 3 from last year back up to his career average (21 TDs = 126 points). Let's also assume that his rushing yards go up 19% to his career average of 643 yards (64 points) and his rushing TDs go up 3 to his career average of 8 (48 points). If you lose a point per interception, he's gonna lose at least 12 points (that's his career low, twice). So a regressed Brees is about 44 points better than a progressed Cam, which is just under 3 points per week. If this is just a standard 1-keeper league, I'd keep Brees over Cam, and worry about your 2016 keeper after you contend for a title in 2015. If this is a Dynasty League, look at the total makeup of your roster. If you think that you can win the title this year, I'd keep Brees. If you don't think you can win a title this year, give up those 3 points per game and build around Cam for 2016.
  • 0
    Robert Lampert (450 Reputation Points)
    I'd trade Brees before he retires and keep Cam. Newton usually falls in the top four QB's and has a lot of years left.
  • 0
    T C (500 Reputation Points)
    I think I'd lean Newton on this one, if only because I would expect regression by Brees. People shouldn't be so quick to pencil him in for 650 attempts and 5k yards...the team just gutted its roster of pass catchers and spent an entire draft on defense (and one tackle). The Graham trade I get but if the Kenny Stills deal isn't a clear signal of a paradigm shift in offensive game plan I don't know what is.
  • 0
    Bolton42 (500 Reputation Points)
    Brees would be my choice as well.

    Most Keeper Leagues you are not signing a player to a lifetime contract. You keep Brees this season. Maybe next year you may have a greater need. Brees should have a bouce back year.

    I know a lot of people are feaking out about Brees losing Jimmy Graham. Brees has had top 10 fantasy QB Numbers before Graham. Why not after he leaves?
  • 0
    Scott Rago (500 Reputation Points)
    Brees just turned 36, so consider Manning and Brady as examples. In this context he's got a half decade before you need to worry about anything.

    My response was dictated entirely upon the scoring system you defined. I wrote 600 attempts, but his average over the last half decade is probably closer to 650, and if you look you'll see Newton's pass attempts have dropped four consecutive years in a row.

    Times change, of course, but it is what it is. If your desire is to look 5 years down the road then keep Newton. But if you'd like to win NOW you should keep Brees.
    2 Comments
    Bat Hilliard (500 Reputation Points)
    I disagree with the Manning and Brady correlation for the simple fact they are pure pocket passers and are taller in the pocket than Brees.... Brees is shorter and relies on his legs to get him to open lanes to pass the ball. So while I put him in their mindset category as a great QB, Brees will inevitably lose some much needed foot speed that doesn't hamper those type pure pocket passers. Not having his clutch dump and red zone guy in Graham and losing oen of his defense spreading wrs is only going to hurt him. Stills was quietly one of the most efficient wrs according to Numberfire last year in NEP.
    Scott Rago (500 Reputation Points)
    The inquiry was on keepers and my comment was on age, so I've no idea where you're going with this. Brees does not 'rely on his legs' (?) He's as pure a pocket passer as any. Graham didn't do squat last year and Cooks is far more talented than Stills.
  • 0
    Scott Rago (500 Reputation Points)
    Earn 1 pt every 10 yds rushing OR passing? This tilts the odds to pass yards in a big way. Very unusual.

    Given ground or air being equal, Brees is the better bet. The man averages nearly 5K per season, typically 40 TD's at that. As much as I like Cam, and I do like Cam, in THIS scoring system the answer would have to be Brees. In a typical format, the choice would be much more difficult.

    Some fear the loss of Graham. Don't. He didn't do squat last year and Saints are not a dumb team. I don't know what it is, but they moved Graham for a reason. Brandin Cooks should be ready to rock and Saints will surely draft another target anyway.

    If it were me, I'd roll dice with the dome QB passing 600 times for his offensive minded coach. Given your scoring system, the choice is fairly obvious.
    1 Comment
    Paul Freeman (475 Reputation Points)
    The only reason I was looking at it was age Brees is getting old
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