MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 4/21/15
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As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
To get a general idea of who we're picking in tonight's slate, check out the video below, courtesy of Periscope. And be sure to follow us on there, @numberFire!
Gio Gonzalez â€“ To be completely honest, there doesn't seem to be a true top pitching option tonight. Gonzalez is ours, but he's projected to score just a couple more DraftKings fantasy points than the sixth-ranked Francisco Liriano. So, just a little advice -- you may want to spread your pitching choices out a bit given the slate. Gonzalez isn't a bad option though, as the the Cardinals have a decent amount of lefty batters that give Gio an advantage in the handedness department. Gonzalez had a really strong 9.19 strikeout per nine rate last year, and his 3.03 FIP was just as significant. Vegas has this game at a 7.0 over/under, and the Cardinals have one of the lowest team totals on the day. It all adds up to Gonzalez being a smart pitching choice.
Carlos Carrasco â€“ Again, I'm not overly thrilled about the pitchers tonight, but I'll certainly aim for strikeouts. Carrasco -- after being drilled in the jaw by a line drive last week -- is a guy who can get those, even if it's against a lineup that's average to above average overall. The downside here is that he'll be in Chicago, which ranked as the fifth-most hitter's friendly park last season, per FanGraphs' numbers. That's a big park shift from Cleveland, which ranked ninth from the bottom. Our algorithm likes Carrasco as the second-best option tonight, but again, remember to spread things out and use as many pitchers as you can -- smartly -- in order to not get burned.
Best High-Priced Hitters
Paul Goldschmidt - Goldy doesn't have the platoon split in his favor tonight, but he's still a really good option in a hitter's ball park against a bad pitcher. Nick Martinez has a career 4.81 FIP in 154.1 innings pitched, and is a big fly-ball pitcher. Goldschmidt certainly hits lefties better than he does right-handers, but he still has a significant .216 ISO against righty hurlers to go along with a .374 wOBA.
Justin Upton - Since we talked about Matt Kemp here yesterday -- who's a great play once again tonight -- I figured it'd be good to switch things up and go with his Padre teammate. The Padres will face lefty Tyler Matzek at Coors, meaning all right-handed San Diego bats are in play, as they were last night. Upton will be costly, but his .394 wOBA and .247 ISO against right-handed pitching throughout his career makes him a really attractive option.
Most Cost-Effective Hitters
Derek Norris - I could probably copy and paste what I wrote yesterday about Derek Norris. The simple fact is this: when he gets a lefty pitcher, he generally mashes them. His wOBA and ISO jump significantly in the split, but because he's not nearly as good against righties, his price is lower than it really should be. Even with a slight rise after last night's game, he's one of the top catching options -- if not the top -- at Coors.
Lonnie Chisenhall - Our numbers really like Chisenhall tonight against Hector Noesi, so it wouldn't be right if I left him off today's primer. Chisenhall isn't necessarily in the best part of the lineup for production, batting seventh over the last week, but he does get the platoon split in tonight's game. Against right-handers in his career, he has a .322 wOBA (up from .295 against lefties) and .159 ISO (.136). He's going to be a cheap option across the industry, and the punt options aren't fantastic tonight, making him a reasonable player to target.