How Will the Top Rookie MLB Position Players From Last Season Perform in 2015?

Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox, 1B

The only thing the Cuban righthander may have demolished more than preseason expectations last season were baseballs, as he was not only the top rookie hitter in baseball, but one of its best hitters, period.

He produced a .317/.383/.581 slash line with 36 home runs in 622 plate appearances, good for a 165 wRC+ which was fifth in the Majors. He also led the Majors in slugging percentage and home run to fly ball rate (26.9%) and tied for fourth in isolated power (.264) (remember, while home run to fly ball rate is relatively unstable for pitchers, it is more of a repeatable skill for hitters).

An aggressive approach at the plate led to a below average strikeout rate of 21.1%, but his walk rate of 8.2% was still above the American League average.

A .356 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), the AL’s third highest rate, may have helped things but the league’s 20th-best line drive (23.3%) suggests this was not just random variance. Expect it to go down, but based on Abreu’s ability to reach base and hit for power, a decline it BABIP shouldn’t hurt him that much.

Plus, the main projection systems, ours included, do not see the 28-year-old slowing down.