Who Were the Luckiest and Unluckiest MLB Hitters in May?
Hitters With a Suppressed BABIP
While the group we just dissected experienced some good fortune despite not having all of the peripherals to back it up, these guys shouldn't be playing the lotto anytime soon. Only one -- Kole Calhoun -- produced a below-average hard-hit rate in May, yet none produced a BABIP higher than .263.
| Rank | Name | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kole Calhoun | .178 | 26.3% | 36.8% | 36.8% | 30.3% |
| 2 | Matt Carpenter | .206 | 16.4% | 26.9% | 56.7% | 50.7% |
| 3 | Khris Davis | .217 | 18.2% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 47.0% |
| 4 | Andrew McCutchen | .218 | 19.3% | 43.4% | 37.3% | 39.8% |
| 5 | Jay Bruce | .222 | 22.1% | 29.9% | 48.1% | 46.8% |
| 6 | Jose Reyes | .225 | 23.6% | 40.4% | 36.0% | 33.7% |
| 7 | Nick Castellanos | .227 | 19.7% | 43.4% | 36.8% | 38.2% |
| 8 | Scott Schebler | .233 | 18.5% | 44.4% | 37.0% | 43.2% |
| 9 | Brandon Belt | .243 | 24.0% | 30.7% | 45.3% | 36.8% |
| 10 | Logan Morrison | .250 | 15.7% | 31.4% | 52.9% | 48.6% |
| 11 | Mike Trout | .263 | 17.0% | 25.5% | 57.4% | 48.9% |
Fly Balls Galore
With a new emphasis on fly balls and hitting home runs, we're always on the hunt for players with elevated fly-ball rates to go with a strong hard-hit rate in fantasy baseball. As we can see above, Matt Carpenter, Logan Morrison, Brandon Belt, Jay Bruce and Khris Davis (along with Mike Trout, but we'll get to him in a minute) all fit the bill. Outside of Belt, each of these hitters had a fly-ball rate and hard-hit rate each above 40.0%, which is ridiculous.
Carpenter is especially interesting because he's the only one to eclipse 50.0% in each category. While that gives us the warm and fuzzies, it doesn't match the .204/.348/.441 triple slash he produced in 115 May plate appearances. However, if the Carpenter owner in your league is frustrated by the lack of overall production (6 homers, 13 RBI and 14 runs scored in May still isn't bad), it could be a potential buy-low opportunity.
A Strong Start Could Be Stronger?
In 2016, Adam Duvall seemingly came out of nowhere for the Cincinnati Reds en route to a 30-homer, 100-RBI campaign. This year, that title shifted over to Scott Schebler, who entered Thursday with a 125 wRC+ and .366 wOBA, along with being the National league homer leader with 16 bombs.
This is coming from a player who is in just his third big league season, and entered 2017 with only 322 MLB plate appearances to his name.
He slugged .598 in April, which was made possible by a 50.0% fly-ball rate and 38.9% hard-hit rate. While he hit balls hard more frequently in May, the fly-ball rate obviously took a dive. Schebler is still making the most of the ones he's getting up in the air, though, with a homer-to-fly-ball ratios this season that are better on the road (28.6%) than at the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark (24.0%).
Hey, He Shouldn't Be Here!
Outside of the unfortunate injury that robs us of the potentially historic season Mike Trout was having, it's hard to call him unlucky in the batted-ball department, but here we are.
Sure, Trout's wRC+ and OPS in May (222 and 1.280, respectively) were better than what they were in April (207 and 1.151), but it was basically engineered by the fact that his Isolated Power (ISO) over the past month was a ridiculous .500, compared to the .343 mark he posted through the season's first month.
His line-drive rate and ground-ball rate both decreased significantly, but as we can see, it all went to his fly-ball rate. So, that inflated ISO and nine homers he collected this past month don't look crazy. We're just sad we can't watch him do these ridiculous things for the next two months while he works his way back from thumb surgery.
