4 Fantasy Football Running Backs Looking to Bounce Back in 2016
Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals
2015 ADP: RB8
2015 Finish: RB20
2016 ADP: RB23
The Bengals have ranked fifth (47.6%) and seventh (45.8%) in rushing play percentage over the duration of Jeremy Hill's two-year career. Hue Jackson's departure won't necessarily lead to a shift in philosophy, with Cincinnati likely keeping pace promoting quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese to offensive coordinator.
That could lead to an easy projection for Hill entering his third season in the league. Hill had nearly the exact same number of carries in 2014 and 2015, but ended up with 330 fewer yards.
The big reason? He was unable to get lucky with big plays last season.
Cherry-picking games through a run log isn't an efficient way to analyze a player, nor a predictive one for future success, but it does explain the discrepancies in Hill's performances.
In 2014, Hill was able to scamper for an 85-yard touchdown, a 62-yard run, a 60-yard touchdown, and a 30-yard touchdown -- runs that consisted of 72% of 2015's lost yards. His biggest play in 2015 was a 38-yard score. That was his only 20-plus yard rush of the season, a big change from the eight he accrued in 2014.
All of those big runs came in the second half of the 2014 seasons when defenses started facing both fatigue and injuries on the rise. Hill was unlikely to repeat such performances with Andy Dalton out with injury -- in the three games without Dalton last year (Weeks 15-17), Hill's carries increased from 13 per game up to 18 while facing crowded boxes that lowered the probability of making those valuable 20-plus yard gains.
The biggest reason for optimism going into 2016 is Hill's success in the red zone. This was Hill's bread and butter, where he saw the sixth-most rushing attempts in the league. He was able to capitalize 40 rushes into 10 touchdowns.
He also saw more touches than teammate Giovani Bernard from inside the 20-, 10-, and 5-yard lines. The Bengals decided not to extend Bernard who enters the final year of his rookie contract, perhaps spelling the end of his time in Cincinnati.
The Bengals also just lost Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and now have Tyler Eifert's status for Week 1 in doubt. That leaves over half of Cincinnati's red-zone passing attempts from last year up for grabs -- a great opportunity for them to look to Hill's success on the ground as an alternative.
Hill doesn't come without his warts in 2016 for fantasy purposes, but positive big-play regression, high touchdown probability, a healthy Andy Dalton, and an offensive line with four first- or second-round talents screams a value pick that is currently going in the fifth round of drafts.
