5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 9
Carolina Panthers Rushing Game
I could not have been lower on Jonathan Stewart than I was when the Carolina Panthers entered their bye.
At that point, Stewart was seeing 14.75 rushes for 55 yards per game with no touchdowns. When you're as inactive in the passing game as Stewart is, that's not going to cut it in fantasy.
There also wasn't a lot of reason for optimism around Stewart. He was the team's third best option in the red zone behind Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert, so he didn't even appear to have touchdown upside.
After the bye, though, nothing has been the same.
Over the past three games, Stewart is averaging 22.67 rushes for 95 yards per game with 3 total touchdowns. He is up to fifth in the league in rushing attempts inside the red zone with 21, and 14 of those have come in the past three games. He's very much fantasy relevant again, and he finds himself in a great matchup this week.
The Green Bay Packers enter this contest ranked 31st in the league in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. They allowed the Denver Broncos -- who are now all the way up to 31st in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play, by the way -- to run all over them Sunday night. Now, they go on the road to face the team ranked fifth in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play. That could end poorly.
There is one pretty glaring spot of trouble in this recommendation: the Packers are favored by 2.5 points. Nothing makes me more squeamish than rostering a running back who isn't involved in the passing game in a contest in which his team is the underdog. Basically, you're flirting with disaster if the team falls down early.
I'm essentially hoping for one of two scenarios. The first is that the Panthers' defense -- which ranks second in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play -- can keep the game close. If they can do that, then the Panthers would have no real reason to abandon the ground game.
The second is that the Packers' rush defense will be so bad that it won't matter. Despite owning a 6-1 record, the Packers have allowed four separate running backs to finish in the top seven in weekly scoring at the position against them. Three running backs have eclipsed 100 yards rushing, and they have allowed seven rushing touchdowns to running backs. Can you imagine what those numbers would look like if they were facing higher volume? Hopefully we'll get a small glimpse of that on Sunday.
