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5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 9

Jim Sannes  —  @JimSannes Nov 5th, 2015
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Atlanta Falcons Rushing Game

Who knew that news about one team's starting quarterback could affect your decisions with regards to the opposing team's running back?

Once the San Francisco 49ers announced they'd be benching Colin Kaepernick in favor of Blaine Gabbert, people started jumping all over the Atlanta Falcons' defense and special teams. After all, Gabbert was atrocious in his time with the Jacksonville Jaguars. This, therefore, should lend itself to plenty of points for the Falcons' defense, right? Precisely. However, whenever you feel yourself strongly drawn toward a defense, you need to have that team's running back on your radar, as well.

Think about it. The selection process for a running back is similar to that of a kicker: you want a team that's favored -- preferably by a good margin -- so that the team will be in positive game script. This will create additional opportunities for the defense to rack up sacks and interceptions, but it also means the team is likely to have plentiful red-zone opportunities and want to run the ball to hold down the lead. Enter Devonta Freeman.

Nine times out of 10, if an offense has both an elite running back and an elite wide receiver, you're going to want to roster the receiver in a tourney. This week, though, I think that Freeman's ceiling may rival that of Julio Jones. Outside of the factors listed above with the defense and special teams, the 49ers are truly awful against the run.

Entering Week 9, the 49ers are 29th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. Freeman is second in the league in Rushing NEP per carry of the 40 backs with at least 60 rushes. He's in a perfect spot to rack up some sick yardage.

With Gabbert at quarterback, the Falcons are likely to have chances to score on a short field. Once they get down close, where do you think they're going?

Over eight games, Freeman has 32 carries inside the red zone. He has also added eight targets. Does it make sense to be gravitating his way in this matchup?

The other factor here with Freeman is projected ownership. There are a lot of people who (like me) don't enjoy rostering high-priced running backs in tournaments as they'd rather go with the higher-variance wide receivers. That puts a dent in his ownership.

Additionally, there's that Todd Gurley guy. If people do decide to pay up at running back, which shiny object do you think they'll prefer? Freeman hasn't gotten in the end zone the past two weeks, making his game log a bit less sparkly. Gurley's last four games have all been monsters. They're going to want to ride the hot hand, again giving Freeman some relief in ownership.

I don't know what percentage of people will end up rostering Freeman this week. I can just guarantee you it's going to be too low, given all of the factors listed above. This is one week where I am more than okay with spending up and taking a dent in your salary to get this high-upside, bad mamma jamma on your squad.

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