Week 10 Game Scripts to Target for Daily Fantasy Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Redskins
Over/Under: 51.5
Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 27.25
Redskins Implied Team Total: 24.25
We know the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense is a weekly DFS target in all phases of the game. But the Washington Redskins defense is the real linchpin here. Will we get the unit that held the Packers, Panthers, Giants, Cowboys, Colts and St. Louis Cardinals all below 22 points, or the sieve that allowed over 40 points to both the Saints and Falcons? Tellingly, Washington's run defense ranks ninth-worst in numberFire's Net Expected Points model, while the overall unit grades out as eighth-worst according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. At this point, should we really bet against Fitzmagic?
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Price: $7,500
What do you think is more predictive? Mike Evans seeing 10 targets last week or only managing 16 yards on those 10 targets? I'm betting on the former, as those 10 targets actually represent an even larger target market share (25%) than Evans has on the season (21.1%). One of the best edges in DFS is simply betting on bounce-back performances from proven producers, especially coming off a week at high ownership. Evans had the fifth-most air yards in the league last week, per Evan Silva of Rotoworld.
Evans should indeed bounce back in a big way at home against a defense allowing the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to receivers and just let Julio Jones ($8,700) score his first touchdown of the season. Last week does serve a reminder, however, that Evans' game is best suited for tournament play. Follow the injury report on Evans, who sat Wednesday with a knee issue.
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins
FanDuel Price: $5,200
Honestly, I don't even know anymore with Jordan Reed. Because his production has been so shaky to date, however, it should keep his ownership low in a pristine matchup. Tampa Bay is allowing the second-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends, fresh off getting spanked by Greg Olsen, allowing him to catch every target sent his way en route to 76 yards and a touchdown.
The good news in addition to the matchup is Reed has the peripheral numbers to match. He leads Washington with a 21.3% target market share, with a strong 8% lead over the next highest-targeted player. Paul Richardson and his 11.8% of the targets are gone, freeing up even more potential volume. He promisingly checks in second among tight ends as an air yards buy low, per Josh Hermsmeyer. Reed isn't a cash option, but he's a nice GPP stack with Tampa's offense at likely low ownership.
Others to Consider
The Tampa side is the fun one to target, even if the floor can be a little rocky. There's little reason to fade Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,600), who just keeps throwing for multiple touchdowns every week he starts. This is your weekly reminder that in games he starts and finishes, he's been a top-three fantasy QB this year yet isn't priced as such. I'll be playing him until proven otherwise.
Things get a bit rockier outside of Evans. Washington has been middle of the pack against tight ends but did allow touchdowns to Evan Engram and Eric Ebron. O.J. Howard ($6,500) has been a revelation this season, but based on elevated ownership coming off a two-touchdown day, he's an understandable fade.
Similar to Evans above, the leverage play is to bet on a bounce-back for DeSean Jackson ($6,300) rather than expecting Adam Humphries ($5,700) to repeat his monster performance. Again, the floors are too low here for most of these to be cash plays, but a game stack makes a ton of sense in tournaments. It's a #RevengeGame for Jackson, while Washington has nobody fast enough to hang with him deep.
This should be a smash spot for Alex Smith ($7,600), if ever a thing existed. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks as well as the 12th-most rushing yards to the position. Smith, however, just lost Richardson for the season and his offensive line is comically injured. The good news is Tampa Bay ranks 24th in sack percentage and remains a defense to attack through the air even with Gerald McCoy back. Ultimately, Smith is a cheap bet-on-matchup contrarian GPP option who makes sense to stack with Reed. Fitz is still the preferred play if choosing between the two.
Adrian Peterson ($6,800) is a pretty easy fade playing behind an injury-ravaged offensive line as a three-point road underdog. He's nothing more than a contrarian GPP play at almost assured low ownership.
Tampa has allowed the ninth-most receptions to running backs despite playing from behind most weeks. That means Chris Thompson ($5,600) is technically an option if he plays, but again, the floor is low. Thompson didn't practice Wednesday after a rib injury forced him to miss Week 9.
Good luck with anyone else on the Washington side. If you must reach, Maurice Harris ($5,900) exploded for over 100 yards last week out of nowhere. He's a big slot option who sneakily is tied with Josh Doctson ($4,900) with the second-largest target market share on the team. Tampa Bay's biggest weakness is in the slot.
