5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 7
Cincinnati Bengals Passing Offense
Ain't nobody want to use Andy Dalton. His highest weekly ownership this year -- based on the percentage of all entries across FanDuel's various slates -- is 8.1%, he has been below 2.0% five times. In three of those games, Dalton has been on fewer than 1 in every 100 entries. That's going to change this week, but the masses aren't flocking to The Red Rifle.
The problem here, though, is that they should. Dalton's facing a Cleveland Browns defense that ranks 28th against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics, matching what you'd expect of a rebuilding team that's flooded with young starters. Every quarterback who has faced them has finished with at least 18.18 FanDuel points this year, and the past two (Tom Brady and Marcus Mariota) have both scored at least 28 points. They are bleeding fantasy production, and Dalton is the next in line to prey.
The sentiment may not be high on Dalton at the moment, but he truly hasn't been bad this season. He ranks 15th in Passing NEP per drop back of the 32 quarterbacks with at least 75 drop backs, and he is 9th in Success Rate (which measures the percentage of drop backs that lead to positive NEP). The team has struggled to replace Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, but Dalton is still above average without them.
Things could get even better for Dalton this weekend with one of his favorite targets finally on the mend.
Elsewhere, Tyler Eifert limited in practice. Still waiting to see that full go practice from him. Perhaps tomorrow will be the day.
— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) October 19, 2016
It's still too early to know whether Tyler Eifert will finally make his season debut, but his impact is undeniable. The team averaged 0.72 Target NEP per target on all passes that went Eifert's way last year, easily leading the team. A.J. Green was second at 0.61, and he was one of the top wide receivers in all of football with this mark. Eifert's presence would be a huge boon for Dalton, and it would only make him more attractive for DFS.
Even with Eifert's status uncertain, you won't need to look hard to find a dance partner for Dalton in a stack. The aforementioned A.J. Green is a bad, bad man.
Green has at least 8 targets in every game this year, giving him a whopping 29.1% of the team's total targets. He has topped 170 receiving yards twice, but a mere 2 touchdowns has suppressed his overall fantasy deliciousness. With an implied team total of 27.75 -- the third-highest mark on the slate -- it's safe to say Green will have chances to add to that total this weekend. He's going to be popular, but it's for good reason, especially with Browns cornerback Joe Haden missing another practice with a groin injury on Wednesday.
