FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 6/14/23
We have another large slate on tap for Wednesday, with 12 games in total to pick from. Making room for one of the slate's high-salaried pitchers could be the best way to go tonight.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
At the top of today's list of pitchers, the first four names that stand out are Framber Valdez ($11,300), Clayton Kershaw ($11,100), Luis Castillo ($10,800), and Tyler Glasnow ($10,100). They also just so happen to be facing the four offenses with the night's lowest implied team totals, too.
Of that group, Castillo arguably gives us the best overall package of ceiling and floor. He's put together a stellar 3.19 SIERA, 30.0% strikeout rate, and 5.0% walk rate over 13 starts, and he's been in good form lately, rattling off four straight quality starts with scores of 52, 58, 40, and 43 FanDuel points. He most recently got up to a season-high 109 pitches and hasn't dropped below 99 during this four-game stretch.
The cherry on top is a matchup against the Marlins. While Miami isn't a great opponent for strikeouts, we just saw Castillo's teammate, George Kirby, bulldoze them for 10 punchouts over six scoreless innings, so we shouldn't be worried about upside tonight. The Marlins' active roster owns the fifth-worst wRC+ (89) versus right-handed pitching, and their 3.05 implied team total is a bottom-of-the-barrel mark.
In terms of strikeout potential, Kershaw might be the top option in a plus spot versus the White Sox. While Chicago has a righty-heavy lineup that we prefer to attack with right-handers, they're still a pretty average offense when facing southpaws, and their active roster's strikeout rate has a poor 25.2% mark in the split.
We may not be getting the consistency of peak Kershaw from several years back, but this version can still crush it more often than not, and he already has six performances of 50-plus FanDuel points this season. Overall, he's sporting a 3.17 SIERA, 30.3% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate over his 13 outings, and while he tends to come short of 100 pitches, he's gone 95 or more pitches in three of his last four.
Glasnow is a tricky case because he's logged 83, 88, and 84 pitches in his three starts, yet he's logged a 31.3% strikeout rate and held his own against a tough string of opponents (the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Rangers). This will be by far his easiest matchup yet versus the Athletics, and his salary is the least restrictive of this bunch.
The A's have been on a roll, but we shouldn't let their recent hot stretch hide the fact that their active roster has a 94 wRC+ and 24.9% strikeout rate against righties. Glasnow's pitch count and a 10.9% walk rate are obvious risks, but this is a guy who averaged a 37.0% strikeout rate over 25 starts from 2020-21 before he underwent Tommy John surgery. Although it remains to be seen whether he can get back to that level, the early signs have been promising, and this is the right matchup to take a shot in tournaments.
Between having a slate-high salary and a matchup against a Nationals team that's actually been above average against lefties, Valdez looks like the fourth man in this group. The Nats also have an upside-sapping 17.4% strikeout rate in the split. Given that Valdez has been an innings and quality starts machine, there's still a path to a ceiling game if he goes seven-plus innings, and Washington's 3.05 implied team total is another positive sign. However, he doesn't feel like as much of a priority on Wednesday.
Gerrit Cole ($10,600) and Merrill Kelly ($10,400) -- the other two arms above $10,000 -- are potential fades. Cole has a low-strikeout matchup versus the Mets, and his punchout rate simply isn't elite this year (25.8%). While Kelly has demonstrated more upside than in prior campaigns, he's still a tier below the top talents, and this is hardly the easiest opponent in the Phillies.
Honestly, in terms of value, it's hard to get fully on board with anyone below $9,000, but if you're desperate for savings, there's Justin Verlander ($8,800), Ben Lively ($7,800), and Reid Detmers ($7,200).
Verlander has pitched like a below-average pitcher over seven starts, and his 19.9% strikeout rate is closer to the bottom of the slate than the top. He's still managed to crack 40-plus FanDuel points three times, though, so maybe there's something left in the tank. The Yankees are a far easier lineup to handle without Aaron Judge despite getting to Max Scherzer yesterday.
Lively's 24.8% strikeout rate will almost certainly prove to be fraudulent when it's all said and done. After all, it wasn't like he was even putting up elite numbers in his KBO years. But there's definitely more good than bad in his 2023 profile thus far, so in case there is some staying power, taking a stab against the Royals isn't the worst idea.
Detmers has a brutal matchup versus Texas, but his 27.2% strikeout rate ranks as the fourth-best on the board, which isn't a bad deal at just $7,200.
Hitting Breakdown
The Boston Red Sox have the highest implied team total for the third night in a row (5.92), but outside of a two-dinger performance from Rafael Devers ($3,600) last night and a couple of other individual performances, they've mostly disappointed as a stack the past two slates. But there's no question that this is a possible smash spot against Austin Gomber.
Gomber has some of the ugliest numbers you'll see from a starter, showing a 5.50 SIERA, 14.0% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate, and 41.1% ground-ball rate. He's allowed 2.37 home runs per 9 innings, and even if we strip out the ones allowed at Coors Field, he's still up at 1.54 per 9.
The left-hander hasn't handled lefties any better than righties, so Devers should still lead the way in Red Sox stacks.
But Boston figures to lean heavily on right-handed batters to counter the southpaw, and while most of them aren't exciting individually, none of them have salaries above $3,000. Justin Turner ($2,900) and Adam Duvall ($2,900) are the first choices, and then Enrique Hernandez ($2,700), Robert Refsnyder ($2,600), Connor Wong ($2,600), and Christian Arroyo ($2,200) all come even cheaper -- which will be useful on a slate where paying up at pitcher is appealing.
Any time the Los Angeles Dodgers have a good matchup, they move to the front of the line, and that's exactly the case tonight. Mike Clevinger's metrics are only incrementally better than Gomber's, as he comes in with a 5.08 SIERA, 18.9% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate, and 32.0% ground-ball rate.
The righty has been demolished by left-handed batters for a 6.53 xFIP and 2.05 home runs per 9 innings, so load up on Freddie Freeman ($4,500), Jason Heyward ($2,600), David Peralta ($2,400), and James Outman ($2,900). Clevinger has been average at best in same-sided matchups, so Mookie Betts ($4,200) and J.D. Martinez ($4,000) also get top billing.
The Tampa Bay Rays flopped in a big way yesterday, and in a surprise twist, they've now dropped two straight to Oakland. Perhaps even they were affected by the A's raucous "reverse boycott" crowd last night.
Regardless, it's hard to see the Rays losing three in a row to these Athletics, and right-hander Luis Medina is a poor bet to keep them off the board. Medina's been rocked over his seven appearances with lesser marks in strikeout rate (20.5%), walk rate (10.9%), and ground-ball rate (41.1%).
The downside of this stack is there isn't a ton of value to be found, and the top half of the order will be particularly tough to fit in. The power runs deep in this lineup, though, and Jose Siri ($3,500), Isaac Paredes ($3,300), and Luke Raley ($3,200) are a little easier to make room for at least.
The Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, and Houston Astros are three more to keep in mind. The Cubs are facing right-hander Osvaldo Bido in his MLB debut, and Bido has been mediocre in Triple-A dating back to 2021, including a 5.25 xFIP this season. Left-hander Reid Detmers has some weird splits, as he has a lower strikeout rate to lefties over his career, but he gives up fly balls to both sides of the plate, and the Rangers have a healthy 4.75 implied team total. Although we typically like to attack Josiah Gray with lefties, he has a 4.49 xFIP and 17.5% strikeout rate in same-sided matchups, giving Houston's righty-heavy lineup a chance of doing well.
