FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 4/25/23
Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.
All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top-Tier Options
Joe Ryan, Twins ($11,000)
The Minnesota Twins will have their ace on the mound to take on the New York Yankees, setting things up for an exciting matchup. Despite the power in the Yankees' lineup, they also strike out at a high rate versus right-handed pitchers, putting Ryan in a good spot.
To be specific, the Yankees have a .182 ISO versus righties, which is the eighth-best in the league, but they also have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in this split (25.7%). That high strikeout rate lines up well against Ryan's pitching profile, which sets him up for a high-upside fantasy game.
This season, Ryan is sporting a 30.5% strikeout rate, 4.2% walk rate, 3.26 xFIP, 13.8% swinging-strike rate, 28.0% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%), and 55.7% medium-contact rate. Ryan is solid across the board and brings a high level of consistency to your fantasy lineups.
Justin Steele, Cubs ($11,400)
Steele is another solid pitching option today, and he has some great weather at his back in Wrigley Field. Cooler temperatures and the wind blowing in will also be a positive for pitchers, and we want to jump on that positive for Steele.
The Chicago Cubs have an emerging star with Steele, and he's showing that again this season with a 25.3% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, 3.57 xFIP, 56.5% ground-ball rate, 58.1% medium-contact rate, and 12.6% swinging-strike rate.
The matchup against the San Diego Padres may not be enticing at first glance, but their lineup hasn't crushed lefties. To be exact, the Padres come in with a 94 wRC+ versus lefties, which is the 13th-worst in the league.
With great pitching weather, this is a spot for Steele to post another big game to start the season.
Tournament Option
Griffin Canning, Angels ($8,800)
The Oakland Athletics are coming off an 11-run outing last night, but they are still a dreadful offense. Every team is going to have games where they post double-digit runs; it's baseball, and that stuff happens. However, the Athletics are absolutely horrible on offense, and we should be willing to roster a pitcher against them.
To this point in the season, the Athletics have a .287 wOBA (27th), 86 wRC+ (23rd), 24.6% strikeout rate (10th), .129 ISO (24th), and 25.9% hard-contact rate (30th) versus right-handed pitchers. They are simply not a good offense, and we can treat yesterday's game --against a lefty -- as a bit of an outlier.
When it comes to Canning, he shouldn't be overly popular tonight given some of the other pitching options around him, making him interesting. He comes in with a 19.5% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 0.87 HR/9, 44.8% ground-ball rate, and 48.3% medium-contact rate.
He won't be overpowering on the mound but should be able to cruise to six innings with little damage against him.
Low-Salary Play
Jose Berrios, Blue Jays ($7,800)
If you've been playing MLB DFS for a few seasons, you know that Jose Berrios is a bit of an enigma. He looks horrible, he looks great, he's striking out hitters, he's walking hitters -- you name it, he's done it. Berrios can be all over the place, but that often leaves him a bit under the radar and with a lower salary.
Berrios comes in with a 23.3% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate, 0.42 HR/9, 3.55 xFIP, 13.1% swinging-strike rate, 48.4% ground-ball rate, and 54.7% medium-contact rate. There are certainly some rays of hope in those metrics but also nothing that screams elite. He's a bit of a wild card, but that can be beneficial if you are looking to roll the dice on a salary-saver and load up on hitters.
He'll be up against the Chicago White Sox, who don't strike out a ton with a 22.5% punchout rate versus righties (19th in MLB) but also don't have a ton of power. They come in with a .140 ISO (21st), 87 wRC+ (22nd), 34.3% fly-ball rate, and 28.0% hard-contact rate -- none of which are worrisome.
