Sannes' 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Players to Buy Before Opening Day
German Marquez, SP, Colorado Rockies
As someone who values a player's situation heavily, I've never been inclined to buy a pitcher whose home park is basically the moon.
German Marquez's 2018 made sure that changed.
With pitchers, it's easier to believe in small-sample success if that success overlaps with a change in their repertoire. Jameson Taillon's price skyrocketed last year because he added a slider, and it's easy to feel good about that entering 2019.
For Marquez, it was a change in the velocity of his curveball. Through Marquez's first 15 starts, the average velocity on his curveball was 80.3 miles per hour. On June 24th, that jumped to 82.1 miles per hour and was at 83.1 over his final 18 starts. Marquez used that new curve to scorch the souls of opposing hitters.
| Marquez in 2018 | ERA | SIERA | Strikeout Rate | Walk Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 15 Starts | 5.20 | 4.29 | 22.0% | 9.0% |
| Final 18 Starts | 2.79 | 2.63 | 32.8% | 5.4% |
Strikeout rates stabilize after 70 batters faced, per FanGraphs, and Marquez faced 463 batters over his final 18 starts. It's hard to take advantage of Coors when you can't put the ball in play.
Speaking of Coors, it's noteworthy that only eight of Marquez's starts in this hot stretch came at home, meaning his ERA isn't going to feel the full effects of his wretched park. But in those eight starts, he had a 2.66 ERA with a 35.4% strikeout rate. Dude was electric.
If any other former top-100 prospect held a strikeout rate of 32.8% over an 18-start sample in his age-23 season, we'd be anointing him as the next Clayton Kershaw. With Marquez pitching in Coors' altitude, the skepticism around him is deserved. But it also allows us to buy in.
Right now, Coors and concerns around a small sample are the two things keeping Marquez's price in check. If the small sample factor goes away, Marquez's price will go up quickly. A pitcher with Marquez's strikeout rate can get by in Coors, so even while acknowledging the concerns, it's likely wise to do a price check on the young righty.
