Questions
Spencer
Which draft position should I take?
I can choose between the 2nd and 9th spot in a 10 team league (by trading with my friend) with my league having a $50 buy in, and my friend would give me the 8th spot in the draft order along with $10 for the 2nd spot in the order (and continue to have that draft spot for the rest of the draft). Should I make this trade?
-
1Dana Bowley (500 Reputation Points)The difference between drafting second or ninth in the first round is not that large. You should still get a stud at 9 with a point differential of maybe 1 point per game less than the player taken at 2. The big difference is round 2, where you get the 12th overall pick. So the first two rounds you get two of the top 12 players. This translates into no worse than the No. 5 RB AND the No. 5 WR, more likely No. 4 at each position because somebody's going to take Gronk in the first and somebody will take a QB or a player outside the top five at his position. With the No. 2 pick, the next pick isn't until 19th overall, meaning you get a top 2 RB or WR, but then most likely a No. 8 with your second pick. This pattern repeats itself every two rounds. I'd prefer to start out with two of the first 12 picks than two of the first 19, because in the third round it's the difference between the 22nd best player and the 29th, which again is not much of a difference. But in the fourth round, you're back on top with the 32nd pick compared with the 39th, and I'd rather be picking at the top of the fourth round than at the bottom when the choices start getting slimmer. So at the end of four rounds, you've got 4 of the top 32 players, while the person picking second has 4 of the top 39. After the fourth round, the talent level is pretty even so there's no advantage either way, although it allows you to set the tone in even rounds by, for instance, taking the best defense or No. 2 TE at the top of the sixth round.2 Comments↳Spencer (500 Reputation Points)Thank you Dana! That was a really helpful response, and that's what I was kind of thinking, I just wasn't sure how big the difference between a top 2 player compared to 2 top 12 players would be.↳Dana Bowley (500 Reputation Points)Most "experts" are now projecting the first round as a 4-5 split either way with RBs and WRs, plus Gronk. That scenario means the ninth pick gets a top 4 RB-WR, and the 12th pick probably gets no worse than the No. 5 RB or WR. Picking second gets a No. 1 RB or WR, but then the 19th pick at best gets the No. 8 RB-WR, and maybe even No. 9.
-
0Kenny Kusinas (540 Reputation Points)It depends upon your strategy. If you're going for a WR in the first round, keep the 2 spot. I've been mocking already (sad, I know), and the best receivers available at the end of the first round are AJ Green and Allen Robinson. As far as RBs, you're looking at Ezekiel Elliot (rookie), AP (over 30 and coming off a ton of carries), and Gurley (tons of injuries in college). Last year, I loved drafting at the turn, but this year I think it's terrible. Do some mocks and see what works for you, then decide.
-
0Austan Kas (452 Reputation Points)I agree with Matt. I'd do that swap. I have always enjoyed picking at the back end of the first in snake drafts because you get a crack at landing two top guys.1 Comment↳Spencer (500 Reputation Points)Thanks! I wasn't sure because at the top of the draft, you can get a top player of your choice, and I've noticed that champions of leagues typically pick in the first 5 or so of a draft.
-
0Matt Dirzulaitis (467 Reputation Points)If it were me, and the league isn't serpentine, I would keep the 2nd spot. But if the draft is serpentine, I don't think your draft position makes as much of a difference so I would do the deal.3 Comments↳Spencer (500 Reputation Points)Thanks. It is serpentine, so it just depends on if I want to have a choice of who I want to take for the 2nd pick, or if I want to have 2 solid players that I take in a row, with a little lower of a hit with the league buy-in.↳Matt Dirzulaitis (467 Reputation Points)Yeah, if it were me then I would probably take the trade to move down, especially with some of the uncertainty at the top of drafts this year. For serpentine, I think if there was any kicker I would switch from any position to another. But again, that's just my personal opinion.↳Spencer (500 Reputation Points)Okay, thank you for your help! I haven't done as much research as I would have liked to at this point, but the first round does seem pretty even overall this year. And a lot different than in past years.