UFC 290: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry within the sports world, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action each and every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 14 fights at UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday.

Esteban Ribovics vs. Kamuela Kirk

Lightweight (155 pounds)

This will be a matchup with plenty of "firsts" for Kamuela Kirk. It's his first fight at lightweight and first in UFC facing a true striker. We'll see how it goes for him.

Kirk's ugly run through featherweight saw him stopped in the second round twice, and his only reprieve was a tight decision nod over Makwan Amirkhani (7-7 UFC) in which he was taken down five times. Kirk's 37% striking defense is terrible, and his low fantasy output shows how little he's done offensively to a point where I still don't know his exact gameplan or style.

There's a growing sentiment he can take Esteban Ribovics to the mat and submit him. Ribovics ceded takedowns on 11 of 21 attempts from Loik Radzhabov in his debut, but to allow so many, Ribovics' takedown recovery was obviously pretty strong.

Here's the problem beyond Kirk's reduced strength at this higher weight class -- he averages just 0.86 takedowns per 15 minutes with 40% accuracy. He's not even as strong as Radzhabov in that department.

Billy Quarantillo, a featherweight, landed 78% of his significant strikes on Kirk with a five-inch reach disadvantage. Kirk's length means nothing if he doesn't know how to use it, so I'm expecting the improving Argentinian, who is just 27, to avoid enough control time to cruise.

Betting Verdict: This fight is a mess with Kirk's unknown profile at 155 pounds, and Ribovics' debut was odd, too. I will get exposure to Ribovics through a more forgiving salary in DFS.

DFS Verdict: It'll be interesting to see if many pinch pennies with Kirk ($14) on a poor week for value plays. Ribovics' win equity and striking style seem like a great proposition at $15 to me.

Jesus Aguilar vs. Shannon Ross

Flyweight (125 pounds)

I have no clue how this fight made a pay-per-view.

Jesus Aguilar has less than a round of UFC experience under his belt; he was submitted by superstar Japanese prospect Tatsuro Taira in the first round as a +750 underdog. It was an impossible situation, but the Mexican submission ace has the shortest reach (62") in UFC history for a men's division, so I wouldn't project a world title.

Aguilar did win his fight on Dana White's Contender Series by a dominant submission, though. That's how he carries a +0.68 SSR and excellent 65% striking defense into this one. After all, he nearly submitted Taira himself, so he's no joke on the mat.

As for Shannon Ross, he was cleanly blitzed out of his debut by Kleydson Rodrigues in seconds in his home country. Ross has now been knocked down four times from the 95 significant strikes he's absorbed across two UFC-affiliated appearances. He also lost in his trip through the Contender Series.

Opposed to Aguilar, "Turkish Delight" has just one win and one loss via submission. Aguilar's striking isn't great, so Ross -- for once -- doesn't have to truly fear a knockout, but I also wouldn't expect him to be very confident in that area, either.

I rarely bet fighters with durability issues even if they have great skill and/or finishing upside. Ross doesn't appear to have either.

Betting Verdict: Aguilar's submission prop (+230) is the only small dart I'll fire here. His size issues really help eliminate the knockout outcome at the UFC level, but this fight gets incredibly volatile every minute it extends to where we haven't seen these guys.

DFS Verdict: The $3 in salary savings will likely have Ross ($13) the more popular target here. For most weeks on FanDuel, you aren't finding a -162 moneyline in this mid-range, though. Both have a case as value plays, but I don't trust Ross as far as I can throw him.

Cameron Saaiman vs. Terrence Mitchell

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

I have missed out on so many spots by nitpicking a particular matchup for a fighter I believe is overvalued.

I don't know if Terrence Mitchell on a week's notice is the right matchup, but 22-year-old Cameron Saaiman is overvalued if he's commanding a -600 moneyline over anybody. Saaiman's striking (+2.80 SSR) is excellent, but earlier this year, he nearly lost to Florida journeyman Steven Koslow (0-1 UFC) on short notice.

Koslow landed five of nine takedowns, and Saaiman's takedown defense is a putrid 40% overall. While Mitchell isn't a traditional wrestler, he's a massive fighter for this division. I don't hold the knockout loss (to Kai Kara-France at 125 pounds) that's going viral this week against him; that weight is ridiculously low for his 5'10" frame, so his durability was expectedly compromised.

Saaiman does figure to be the better striker here, but could an overconfident Saaiman end up getting taken down and wrapped up by a much larger, longer athlete? It nearly happened against Koslow, who lacked the UFC ties Mitchell already has through The Ultimate Fighter. He's also 33 years old with 17 pro fights, having been around the block in the Alaskan Fight League for a decade.

There's just no way an inexperienced fighter like the South African has a complete MMA arsenal at this stage to hold betting value with 83.9% implied odds to win against a larger, more experienced foe.

Betting Verdict: Rather than betting on Mitchell straight, I'm taking a dart at his submission prop (+1300). It's a perfect bet to encompass Saaiman's potential shortcomings as a grappler with a partial-unit wager.

DFS Verdict: There are other top favorites on this card with no weaknesses and no real path to defeat. Saaiman doesn't fit that description, so I'll punt to Mitchell ($10) for salary savings and a prayer.

Vitor Petrino vs. Marcin Prachnio

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Vitor Petrino is a great example of why my podcast doesn't cover smaller cards anymore.

All of Petrino's regional footage and a highlight knockout on Dana White's Contender Series showed a one-dimensional slugger, and out of nowhere, he landed seven on nine takedown attempts on Anton Turkalj for a dominant win in his official octagon debut. He even reversed Turkalj's position on the mat four times.

Just like that, Petrino appears to bring elite power, efficient striking and wrestling, and a great gas tank to one of UFC's weaker divisions at present. Need an example of that? Marcin Prachnio was knocked out in his first three starts at 205 pounds and is still hanging around.

Prachnio's technical striking is excellent. His extensive kickboxing background shows behind a +2.44 SSR, but behind those durability issues previously, he's also had a beatable 62% takedown defense. Of course, the really tough sell for me is a paltry 0.28% knockdown rate. It's hard to bring his proverbial knife to a gunfight with big, powerful light heavyweights.

In his last fight, William Knight chose to oddly do nothing to Marcin, offering just 33 total significant strike attempts in 15 minutes. That's kind of been his career. Prachnio capitalizes on off nights from others, but well-rounded tanks like Petrino have blitzed him out in short order.

Betting Verdict: Due to his own lack of aggression, Prachnio's last fight was so unappealing that I believe UFC is sending him to a not-so-great night here. Petrino by KO/TKO/Submission (-170) will be on my card.

DFS Verdict: If it weren't for quite literally some of the largest betting favorites in UFC history, the high-paced Petrino ($16) would be an MVP candidate. He's a stellar flex play.

Tatsuro Taira vs. Edgar Chairez

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Despite its rich history of martial arts, Japan hasn't really had a true UFC championship contender. Tatsuro Taira can change that.

Taira has mauled three foes with his excellent grappling thus far, securing an astounding 2.62 takedowns and 3.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He's absorbed just 1.05 significant strikes per minute. That's dominance.

Believe it or not, he's actually a smaller favorite here than when he dispensed the aforementioned Jesus Aguilar. Edgar Chairez's physical tools almost assured that, but Chairez was also submitted by Aguilar regionally himself. That doesn't provide the most encouraging outlook for him here.

Other than surviving all 15 minutes, Chairez's UFC-affiliated debut was a disaster between a -1.87 SSR and getting controlled for 29.8% of the fight on the mat. Taira's a higher-regarded prospect than his foe that night (Clayton Carpenter), so on short notice, this line is wide for a reason.

Betting Verdict: If I get to a wager in this fight, Taira's KO/TKO prop (+700) is interesting to me when Chairez struggled so badly on the feet in his Contender Series bout. We've seen the grappling, which would be the hardest road here. What if he flashes the rest of his game?

DFS Verdict: With this fight also -136 to see fewer than eight minutes, Taira is one of three overwhelming favorites north of -1000 on this card. His grappling-heavy style isn't amazing for fantasy, but he's a worthy MVP choice at $21.

Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

I'm a data guy, so I love this fight when we got 15 minutes of data in a draw between these two in February.

It wouldn't have been a draw if Alonzo Menifield wasn't docked a point for grabbing the fence in the final round. Menifield destroyed Crute in the first two rounds, knocking him down twice and nearly ending the fight. Due to exhaustion, Crute took over with his wrestling and won the third.

That's the same dynamic here. Crute's wrestling (5.19 takedowns per 15 minutes with 64% accuracy) is outstanding, but Menifield's 75% takedown defense provided more resistance than the Aussie was expecting.

On the other side, "Atomic" Alonzo has a huge 1.18% knockdown rate, and Crute's 45% striking defense is dreadful. He was knocked out swiftly in two straight bouts before the draw with Menifield, who nearly made it three.

To me, it's far more likely Menifield -- who has never been professionally submitted -- finds another bomb or two before he's submitted. He's an underrated ground fighter. Plus, the draw allowed me to take a closer look at Crute's profile in this matchup, and his strength of victory has aged like milk.

Betting Verdict: I was on Crute for multiple units in the first bout, but Menifield's atomic power and underrated grappling should have finished the first bout. At worst, he'll win rounds with damage over control, too. I have Alonzo closer to -125.

DFS Verdict: This will be another fascinating DFS dichotomy in the mid-range, but you're likely banking on Menifield's first career loss via submission to project finishing upside for Crute here. At $13, I've seen Alonzo nearly end his night twice.

Yazmin Jauregui vs. Denise "Dee" Gomes

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

These two prospects might put on a show.

As a training partner of Brandon Moreno, Yazmin Jauregui entered with far more hype, which she is still carrying into this betting line. Jauregui's UFC debut was a comfortable win over 20-year-old Iasmin Lucindo, and she followed that up with a knockout of Istela Nunes (0-3 UFC).

Nunes actually dropped Jauregui in that fight, so she's definitely not made it here without scars. Denise Gomes can say the same after running into divisional stalwart Loma Lookboonme (5-2 UFC) in her debut, but Gomes snatched the hype of Bruna Brasil earlier this year in Kansas City. As a +135 underdog, she finished Brasil in the second round.

With three takedowns in that one, Gomes has also shown wrestling that Jauregui hasn't to this point. With similar size and analytical profiles on both sides, it's hard for me -- without a great technical MMA background -- to tell you why Jauregui is a huge favorite here in the UFC division most prone to upsets.

Betting Verdict: I'm taking a half-unit dart on Gomes' ML (+300) in a fight I see closer to a pick 'em, but don't ignore under 2.5 rounds (+128) here, too. These ladies combined for four total knockdowns, for or against, in their respective last bouts.

DFS Verdict: Fighters like Taira have no questions holding high salaries this week, and Jauregui simply has too many to command the $18 salary she has. Gomes' $11 mark considerably helps to fit other favorites.

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Josiah Harrell

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Though the largest favorite in UFC history is to come on this card, Jack Della Maddalena is the safest pick to win on Saturday to me.

Della Maddalena's experience is so meaningful. He's amassed a +3.98 SSR and three straight first-round wins over a trio of fighters that have a combined 23 UFC victories to their name. He's been simply perfect outside of a 71% takedown defense that's still really, really good.

That's what Josiah Harrell will have to navigate in his UFC debut on less than two weeks' notice. The 24-year-old was absolutely on a path toward the big show anyway with seven straight finishes, including his last fight with LFA. LFA serves as a minor-league promotion for UFC.

The problem is he defeated an 8-9 professional (Michael Roberts) in that regional bout. Now, he'll be tasked with a guy some of UFC's best at 170 pounds keep dodging.

This fight was made to protect Della Maddalena's squeaky-clean record until they can get him another ranked opponent down the line. That'll be increasingly difficult as the Australian continues to not put a step out of place.

Betting Verdict: In addition to the gaudy lines on Della Maddalena to win and under 1.5 rounds (-280), JDM is also -200 to win in the first round. Rather than play roulette on how he chooses to finish the newcomer, I'll save my coin for the remainder of the card.

DFS Verdict: To me, JDM's striking style, experience, and historical pace make him the single best MVP candidate on the card at $21 despite a higher salary to come.

Niko Price vs. Robbie Lawler

Welterweight (170 pounds)

With respect to Robbie Lawler's stellar UFC career, it's more than beyond time for him to go.

In his last bout, Lawler lost a fight he won. His striking accuracy (57%) and defense (54%) were significantly better than Bryan Barbarena's, but Barbarena simply was willing to keep fighting, and Lawler wasn't. In fact, Lawler's only two wins since 2016 were over the fossilizing duo of Nick Diaz and Donald Cerrone.

Projecting him to beat 33-year-old Niko Price would be an insane upset. Amidst his normal flaws for the division, Price still has a +68 striking differential in his last six fights, including tussles with ranked welterweights like Vicente Luque and Michel Pereira. Grading on a curve, he's still fighting just fine for an assignment like this.

Price's attitude was something I was keenly watching this week. He was notably happy to not hand a loss to one of his childhood heroes, Cerrone, in a 2020 bout. However, given that his approach sounds like putting his career above a parade for Lawler, he should finish "Ruthless" inside the full distance. I guess he's not a Robbie fan.

Betting Verdict: Though I don't love laying nearly -300, Niko is actually a parlay piece where I'm showing value up to -425. Price by KO/TKO (+125) and R1 KO/TKO (+330) have to be on the table given Lawler's reduced state.

DFS Verdict: Niko at $16 is a steal. His pace is great when Lawler has ceded at least 140 significant strikes in consecutive fights, and there's obvious knockout upside.

Bo Nickal vs. Valentine Woodburn

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Ladies and gentlemen, this is just a quick pass through history.

Bo Nickal is the largest betting favorite in the modern era of UFC for this fight. He was already a favorite north of -1500 taking on former UFC winner Tresean Gore, but with Gore out due to injury, regional slugger Valentine Woodburn will use this as an opportunity to face a more appropriate opponent later.

At 5'8", Woodburn is a stubby tank that could be an awkward matchup for Nickal, who is best known as the most accomplished collegiate wrestler in NCAA history from Penn State. Still, with no regional wins or losses via submission, it's really a total dart to expect him to have any sort of UFC-caliber grappling.

I've got plenty of questions for Nickal, whose striking is a total work in progress, down the road. Gore might have answered some of those questions, but considering the way Nickal completely flattened multi-time UFC winner Jamie Pickett in his debut, it's fair to call a win inside the full distance for him over Woodburn simply a formality.

Betting Verdict: Personally, the only way to bet this monstrosity is a dart at Nickal by KO/TKO (+260). In lopsided bouts, fighters can choose to showcase their secondary skills, so he may lean more on ground-and-pound practice than his submission-heavy attack against Pickett.

DFS Verdict: Nickal's $23 salary is clear of the field for good reason. His wrestling approach can create empty moments, though. Plus, he's a far lesser-known commodity than Della Maddalena. I want to simply match the field the best I can with him in MVP and flex spots.

Jalin Turner vs. Dan Hooker

Lightweight (155 pounds)

My membership in the Jalin Turner Fan Club was redacted to preview this fight, so I hope you all are happy.

Turner is a 6'3" cyborg that somehow makes this weight class, and at 28 years old, he had the physical tools and potential to be a champion one day. "Potential" is the keyword, though. He was comfortably controlled by both ranked fighters (Mateusz Gamrot and Matt Frevola) on his resumé to this point. Dan Hooker is his third shot.

Hooker is seen as a faltering stock after forgivable setbacks to ranked fighters like champion Islam Makhachev, Michael Chandler, and Arnold Allen during an ill-advised trip to 145 pounds for the Kiwi. Still, outside the top 10, he scored a dominant win over Nasrat Haqparast on short notice, and he was comfortably better than Claudio Puellas last fall, finishing him with leg kicks.

Leg kicks are a concern for Turner behind a long, skinny frame. Plus, he's got just a 43% striking defense that trails Hooker (51%) considerably. Dan also hasn't been submitted by anyone besides Makhachev, which includes Dustin Poirier, Paul Felder, and Yair Rodriguez.

Falling in love with athletic tools is a quick way to go broke betting on UFC -- especially if they miss weight. Hooker is a live 'dog here.

Betting Verdict: My favorite bet in this one -- beyond sprinkles of Hooker's moneyline (+225) -- is over 1.5 rounds (-120). That's a short number to just need 7.5 minutes when Hooker has eclipsed that mark in five of his last eight through much tougher competition.

DFS Verdict: Because of all the lopsided favorites, Turner's $17 salary is otherwise a steal for 74.4% implied odds to win, but we need value plays, and Hooker ($13) has a fine shot to win here compared to many of the others in his salary tier.

Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis

Middleweight (185 pounds)

If you don't know much about UFC and look at this statistical comparison, you'd wonder why Dricus Du Plessis is such a heavy underdog. My model absolutely wonders the same.

Robert Whittaker is a popular former middleweight champion, but he can absolutely lose this fight. The "film junkies" laud Whittaker's overall technique, but his +1.22 SSR isn't very dominant, his 42% striking accuracy is downright poor, and he doesn't wrestle very much.

Outside of two failed attempts at Israel Adesanya, the level of competition between these two isn't as far apart as many proclaim. "Bobby Knuckles" has three wins over currently ranked 185-pounders to Du Plessis' one.

Dricus is an offensive force that adds 2.83 takedowns and 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes to the sparkling +2.99 SSR above. Offensively, there's nothing he can't do, and his 53% striking defense has been far better than many think because his pace leads to wearing plenty of damage himself.

Whittaker's recent run through Adesanya and Marvin Vettori featured patient strikers who were willing to let Rob operate in a pretty fashion. Du Plessis is a car crash, and if Whittaker's not careful, he could get the worst of it.

Betting Verdict: My model's pick of the weekend is Du Plessis' ML (+290). He's so versatile that I wouldn't really explore props on the exact method, either.

DFS Verdict: If you thought Turner's win equity was solid at $17, check out Whittaker's. As risky as it seems, if either goes down and you played their opponent, that's a massive notch toward winning a tournament when we'll all be guessing on value plays.

Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds; Five-Round Title Fight)

This fight marks the beginning of a new chapter for Brandon Moreno after finally closing UFC's first quadrilogy with Deiveson Figueiredo.

Unfortunately, this is actually chapter two of a novel he hasn't liked thus far. Moreno lost to Alexandre Pantoja via a pretty lopsided decision (-34 striking differential) in 2018. You can state Moreno has improved -- which he has -- all you want, but so has Pantoja, who has won three straight to earn this opportunity.

I've never been particularly sold on Moreno, whose performance seemed to correlate with Figueredo's weight cut. When Deiveson's accuracy was normal, he was demolished. In the two renditions where Figueredo wasn't close to his analytical self, Moreno thrived. Brandon's 40% striking accuracy is extremely low with a 56% striking defense that's really good but not elite.

He'll also be the worse grappler of these two. Pantoja averages 1.2 submission attempts per 15, converting a pair for his last two wins. His striking accuracy (48%) is also much better.

I just can't see Moreno continuing to evade his flaws against everyone. Against Kai Kara-France, he was arguably losing with a 38% striking accuracy before a sublime liver kick. Pantoja also has a higher SSR in this one. I've got "The Cannibal" as a slight favorite to dethrone the champ.

Betting Verdict: Moreno ate 226 significant strikes from, statistically, flyweight's most powerful puncher ever, Figueredo. Subtracting a knockout from Pantoja's range of outcomes, I'm in love with Pantoja to Win by Submission or Points (+190) in FanDuel Sportsbook's "double chance" market.

DFS Verdict: Though there are two extra rounds to work, passing on Whittaker or Turner to roster a higher-salaried Moreno ($18) seems like lunacy to me. Pantoja's mid-range salary ($15) is a nice addition to my build when I favor him to win.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez

Featherweight (145 pounds; Five-Round Title Fight)

Though he's 34 years old and approaching the end of his prime, Alexander Volkanovski should be enjoyed while he's here.

I won't pick against him until he loses when he went up to lightweight and nearly defeated Islam Makhachev in his weight class to snatch the undisputed top pound-for-pound spot in UFC. Considering the effort, he's still the top overall UFC fighter to me; a +2.95 SSR through his level of competition just doesn't seem real.

The case for Yair Rodriguez is a wobbly one. Across three victorious efforts, Volkanovski destroyed Max Holloway (+130 striking differential), and the only reason Rodriguez won the interim belt to earn this opportunity was that Holloway, the clear top contender, wasn't permitted a chance at a fourth fight with Volkanovski.

Yair fought Max in 2021 and got scorched, amassing a -71 striking differential. For all intents and purposes, Volkanovski is going to do the same -- or worse.

There is a little bit of drama from the fact that Rodriguez is a bit unorthodox, and his submission volume (0.80 attempts per 15 minutes) is something Holloway didn't bring to the table. Volkanovski also made his first return weight cut to 145 pounds since the Makhachev fight.

Given Volkanovski is a consummate professional, there's just very little to justify supporting Rodriguez to win if "Alexander the Great" is anything close to the version of himself that won five straight featherweight title bouts.

Betting Verdict: Rodriguez's durability is outstanding. He hasn't been finished since May 2017. Volkanovski has also gone to a decision in four of his five title bouts. As I said on Covering the Spread, I see value in both Volk's win-by-points outcome (+145) and over 4.5 rounds (-102) in this one.

DFS Verdict: At featherweight, Volkanovski has eclipsed 135 significant strikes in five straight bouts. His floor is supremely high to the point where I'd feel comfortable ranking him over Nickal as an MVP candidate -- especially if Yair's durability leads to an onslaught.