NHL Playoffs: Conference Final Preview

Nashville Predators vs. Anaheim Ducks

The Anaheim Ducks are the only division winner remaining in the playoffs, and are set to do battle with the somehow dominant 8 seed of this year's tournament, the Nashville Predators.

After sweeping through their first-round matchup, they sent the St. Louis Blues and hope to do the same thing against John Gibson and company.

One of These Is Not Like The Other

Pekka Rinne has been lights out, while Gibson has been just average. Rinne posted a .951 saves percentage and a 1.37 goals against average, both league bests for goaltenders that have played at least 10 games.

On the other hand, Gibson has done quite the opposite -- in 11 postseason games, he has managed a .908 save percentage and a rather high 2.80 goals against average.

For Anaheim, their 3.18 goals per contest was the main reason behind them advancing as far as they have.

If trends like this continue, it will be tough to call them the favorite, especially considering Anaheim's 69.0% conversion rate on the penalty kill.

High-Flying Offenses

Similar to the Pittsburgh/Ottawa series, we can expect this one to be high scoring, but potentially for only one side. If this postseason has shown us one thing, it's that the Nashville Predators can be the team we predicted them to be in the regular season -- one that has doubled their goals for versus goals against.

Ryan Ellis has been a silver lining for the Preds this entire campaign, posting the second-best numbers for defensive scoring behind Erik Karlsson (4 goals and 5 assists in just 10 games played). His teammate, Roman Josi, put up similar numbers, with four goals and four assists.

However, to say Nashville has been led solely by their defense is a misnomer -- they also possess firepower in the form of Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen who, when hot, are flat-out beasts.

The only saving grace for the Ducks is that they have been lucky enough to receive All-Star play from the likes of Ryan Getzlaf, Jakob Silfverberg and Rickard Rakell, all whom have at least 10 points this campaign. Getzlaf actually ranks third in the playoffs, behind Evgeni Malkin, and the recently eliminated Leon Draisaitl.

The Verdict

Our nERD metric proves that Nashville and Anaheim are more similar than one would expect, with values of 0.27 and 0.26, respectively. In their season series, Anaheim took two of three contests, but Nashville's victory came by a score of 5-0.

The two teams each hold probabilities to win the Stanley Cup at just over 20.00%, and this series should be a tight one. Our metrics give a slight edge to the Ducks, with a 51.52% chance to advance.