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NFL Survivor Pool Best Bets: Week 11

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As survivor pools heat up, which team will give you the eye of the tiger?

Most people, when picking for their eliminator pool, just pick the team with the best chance to win that week. The best way to maximize your chances of winning, however, is to make a decision based on what teams other people are picking. If 75% of the population is picking the top game, you stand to gain from picking the second best option. That way, even though both teams are likely to win, if the top team is upset (see: Patriots, Week 2), 75% of the pool has been eliminated and you are still standing. Using every possible combination of game outcomes for the week (65,000+), we tell you who maximizes your potential gains.

Week 11's Top Picks

Houston over Jacksonville (85.1% Win Probability)
The Texans have shown the ability to beat weak teams time and time again, but last week they took down the formidable Bears in the Windy City. Houston should dominate the Jaguars in an AFC South showdown.

Atlanta over Arizona (79.3 % Win Probability)
The Cardinals have shown their true colors, going 0-5 after starting off the season 4-0. Even though the Falcons suffered their first loss of the year in Week 10, they should bounce back to dominate John Skelton and company.

Denver over San Diego (75.2% Win Probability)
If you hadn’t yet heard, Peyton Manning is back. At the same time, Phildog is playing like Tim Tebow usually does for the first three quarters of games and Norv Turner is once again on the hot seat. The Broncos can viritually guarantee an AFC West title with a win in Week 11.

This week’s most picked teams

1. Dallas Cowboys over Cleveland Browns (44.1%)
2. Atlanta Falcons over Arizona Cardinals (13.9%)
3. Houston Texans over Jacksonville Jaguars (8.2%)

 

Who to pick

Houston Texans (82.8 adjusted win odds)
Most people will have picked all of our top four teams so far. The next best options are the Redskins or Cowboys.

Full Adjusted Win Odds

TeamAdj Win Odds
HOU82.77%
ATL74.83%
DEN74.43%
NE71.01%
WAS64.12%
DAL61.88%
NO61.68%
STL60.70%
CIN59.81%
SF58.49%
PIT57.90%
BUF55.26%
GB54.99%
TB50.17%
CAR49.83%
DET45.01%
MIA44.74%
BAL42.10%
CHI41.51%
KC40.19%
NYJ39.30%
OAK38.32%
CLE38.12%
PHI35.88%
IND28.99%
SD25.57%
ARI25.17%
JAC17.23%

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In This Article

Arian Foster
RB, Houston Texans

Matt Ryan
QB, Atlanta Falcons

Matt Schaub
QB, Oakland Raiders

Peyton Manning
QB, Denver Broncos

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