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NFL Survivor Pool Best Bets: Week 10

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As survivor pools heat up, which team will give you the eye of the tiger?

Most people, when picking for their eliminator pool, just pick the team with the best chance to win that week. The best way to maximize your chances of winning, however, is to make a decision based on what teams other people are picking. If 75% of the population is picking the top game, you stand to gain from picking the second best option. That way, even though both teams are likely to win, if the top team is upset (see: Patriots, Week 2), 75% of the pool has been eliminated and you are still standing. Using every possible combination of game outcomes for the week (65,000+), we tell you who maximizes your potential gains.

Week 10's Top Picks

Pittsburgh over Kansas City (83.5% Win Probability)

The Chiefs are in shambles and rank No. 31 in both overall efficiency and offensive efficiency. Big Ben and company are coming off a huge win over the Giants and won’t be slowed down in Week 10.

Tampa Bay over San Diego (78.5 % Win Probability)

No one believes the Bucs are real this year but they rank No. 10 in our NERD rankings. The Chargers, once a potent offensive attack, rank No. 28 in that category, having scored almost 30 less points than a league-average team would if put in similar situations.

New England over Buffalo (77.7% Win Probability)

Patriots vs. Bills is usually a high-scoring affair as the two teams combined have scored almost 150 points over a league-average offense. Tom Brady leads the AFC’s top passing attack and should throw the ball all over a weak Buffalo secondary.

This week’s most picked teams

1. Pittsburgh Steelers over Kansas City Chiefs (48.1%)
2. San Francisco 49ers over St. Louis Rams (14.9%)
3. Baltimore Ravens over Oakland Raiders (7.1%)

Who to pick:

Tampa Bay Bucs (78.51% adjusted win odds)

Full Adjusted Win Odds (Based on population picks)

This Week Adj Win Odds
TB78.51%
NE75.62%
SF70.22%
PIT67.98%
MIA66.95%
NYG63.61%
DAL61.98%
SEA61.10%
ATL60.93%
BAL60.60%
DEN58.99%
IND56.57%
DET55.74%
CHI54.55%
HOU45.45%
MIN44.26%
JAC43.43%
CAR41.01%
OAK39.40%
NO39.07%
NYJ38.90%
PHI38.02%
CIN36.39%
TEN33.05%
KC32.02%
STL29.78%
BUF24.38%
SD21.49%

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