5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12
Los Angeles Chargers' Rushing Offense
We may not have Gurley, but we've still got a shining light of fantasy glory at running back. Its name is Melvin Gordon.
Gordon and the Los Angeles Chargers are back at home this week to take on the Arizona Cardinals. The Chargers are 11.5-point home favorites, so as we get back to the ground level of our process, you can see why Gordon would stand out.
The matchup is there, too. The Cardinals have allowed opposing backs to rack up 0.03 Rushing NEP per carry and a 42.2% Rushing Success Rate (which measures the percentage of carries that increase the team's expected points for the drive). With the league-average marks at 0.00 and 41.0%, respectively, this is a defense we can exploit. The team's overall ineptitude has also led to tons of volume on the ground against them.
The other issue the Cardinals have had is allowing chunk plays on defense. They've already allowed 25 runs of 15 or more yards, the most in the entire league. Latavius Murray had 4 rushes go for 15 or more yards against them, something he has done only once the entire year outside of that game.
This is a good mesh for Gordon, who has been swimming in yardage behind a rebuilt offensive line. He has 14 carries of 15 or more yards, tied for second in the league behind Ezekiel Elliott. That's more than Gordon had all of last year.
Partially as a result of those chunk plays, Gordon enters this week ranked sixth in Rushing NEP per carry out of 39 running backs with at least 80 carries. He's also ninth in Rushing Success Rate, showing that he's coming through even when he doesn't bust off a big gain. We don't talk about Gordon as being an efficient runner, but that likely needs to change now that he has competent run-blockers up front.
However, as you likely know, rushing efficiency and a plus matchup on the ground can get you only so far. You also need some passing-down work to have huge upside in today's NFL, and that's another box to check for loving Gordon.
In the nine games he has played, Gordon has 20.2% of the Chargers' total targets, second on the team behind Keenan Allen. A lot of those targets are carrying extra juice, too, as Gordon has 29.3% of the team's red-zone targets in those games. It's easy to see how this guy has scored 11 touchdowns in just 9 games.
We talked before about the rushing yardage Gordon has racked up, but he's getting it through the air, as well. His 87 receiving yards last week marked the fifth time he has logged 55 or more receiving yards this year. Only James White has had more such games.
When the yardage totals are as high as they have been for Gordon, it means he doesn't need to score in order to have a big day for fantasy. Gordon has failed to score a touchdown in a game twice this year; in those games, he scored 23.1 and 18.6 points on FanDuel. And with Gordon's red-zone work, it means those scoreless days are few and far between.
Gordon will cost you $8,900 on FanDuel, the second most of any back behind Saquon Barkley. But Gordon is a home favorite with a plus matchup and a massive workload as both a rusher and a receiver. That means we should be doing whatever we can to get him in both our cash-game and tournament lineups.
