5 Running Backs Who Drastically Outperformed Their Teammates in 2017
Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seeing gaps in efficiency for players on the same team can really tell us one of two things.
1. The player who thrived is better than the other players on the roster.
2. The guy who underperformed is just not that good.
One of these two is likely the case with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And it could have big ramifications on the futures of Doug Martin and Peyton Barber.
First, let's just look at the data here. We know that Martin got benched in December, so it's clear he didn't have a good year. The metrics just illustrate how brutal it truly was.
| In 2017 | Rushes | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 138 | -0.16 | 28.26% |
| Peyton Barber | 108 | 0.01 | 44.44% |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 64 | -0.07 | 32.81% |
Not only did Barber outperform Martin, but so did Jacquizz Rodgers. That would seemingly paint a grim picture of Martin's prospects for starting in 2018.
General manager Jason Licht seemed to reiterate that in his postseason press conference, placing blame for the team's rushing woes on Martin's shoulders. If Martin's going to get a shot at a major workload in 2018, it's not likely to be in Tampa Bay.
That brings us to Barber. If Martin is, indeed, on his way out, that would seem to open the door for more volume for Barber. Is it a justification to start investing?
Possibly, but we'll have to do so with caution. There are arguments both for and against it.
The good thing for Barber is that he performed well when given the opportunity here. That was especially true over the final five games as the lead back when Barber had a 44.87% Success Rate. If nothing else, he put himself on the Bucs' radar.
The bad is that -- like Breida -- the team has nothing invested in him. Barber was an undrafted free agent in 2016, so if he winds up playing the backup role, it's not a black mark on the front office. He also averaged just 3.9 yards per carry in 2017, so by traditional metrics, he wasn't turning heads. The advanced analytics are glowing, but it's unrealistic to assume all teams evaluate players in this same fashion.
In dynasty formats, it's certainly not off base to go out and see what the current price on Barber is. It shouldn't be overly restrictive, potentially allowing you to snag him before he jumps into a larger role. You just have to be careful not to overpay in case the team decides to upgrade in free agency or the draft.
