5 Running Backs Who Drastically Outperformed Their Teammates in 2017
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Those of you who watched the Tennessee Titans this year are likely already aware of this, but it bears repeating: the gap between Derrick Henry's production and that of DeMarco Murray was simply massive. Henry absolutely deserves a larger piece of the pie next season.
With these two, we see almost even volume with Henry netting 176 carries to 184 for Murray. That's important because it's harder to maintain efficiency at higher volume. But Henry did so when compared to his teammate.
| In 2017 | Rushes | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 184 | -0.13 | 29.89% |
| Derrick Henry | 176 | -0.01 | 41.48% |
Murray finished the year ranked 40th in Rushing NEP per carry and 44th in Success Rate (again, out of 47 qualifiers). Meanwhile, Henry was above average in both metrics. This should have been a no-brainer.
One fairly major wart with Henry is that even when Murray was out over the final three games, Henry never really got involved in the passing game. He had just eight targets in three games as a workhorse, which is underwhelming. We shouldn't expect him to suddenly spring into the tier of David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, and Todd Gurley if his workload does expand. But he could still carry plenty of fantasy value.
We've seen the upsides of Marcus Mariota as a passer. He had 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) in his age-23 season, which is on par with the best season of Andrew Luck's career. If Mariota can get past the hamstring injury that held him back in 2017 and gain traction under new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, this offense could exhibit major gains. That would be huge for Henry.
There's also the chance Murray could be cut loose by the Titans as he carries a hefty cap hit of $6.5 million for 2018 and can be released with no dead money.
We're working on a lot of "ifs" with Henry with plenty of the offseason left to unfold. But two things are abundantly clear: he deserves to see a bump in volume next year, and the Titans' offense didn't perform up to its potential in 2017. Those two things combine to make Henry a player we may want to preemptively buy while we can.
