Fantasy Football: 4 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Conference Championship Weekend

Be Wary of the Minnesota Defense Because of Line Movement

According to numberFire's power rankings, the Minnesota D/ST ranks second in the NFL. They have been rock-solid all season long. Since we are stuck picking between four defenses, you can bet that many people will take the favored Vikings. I totally get that.

Their matchup does not scare me that much, but the line movement has me concerned that the Vikings may not be a surefire play this weekend.

What is line movement? During the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible to begin taking bets. For this week, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. They are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

The Vikings opened as 3.5-point road favorites, but that number has dropped to 3.0 against the Eagles with a low over/under of 39 points. Three is considered a key number when it comes to betting. Anytime a bookmaker moves a line onto the number 3 or off of it, it is worth noting.

The total has also risen a point during the week, which usually doesn't bode well for the defenses involved.

In 2016, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total rose two points or more in 2015, the defenses involved averaged just 6.28 fantasy points per game.

Again, we don't have much to choose from here, and I wouldn't necessarily avoid the Vikings altogether, but the trends indicate they may not be a shoo-in for the top defense. The Minnesota defense is priced at $4,900, ranking second among defenses.

Matt Blair is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Blair also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username grizzlyblair. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel