NBA

NBA Finals Odds Update: Calculating the Impact of Kevin Durant's Game 5 Return

How much does Durant's return impact the Warriors' chances of erasing a 3-1 deficit?

The Toronto Raptors are one win away from disrupting a dynasty.

Up 3-1 in the NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors, Toronto has three chances -- and two at home -- to close out the series.

We can give the Raptors all the credit in the world for what they've done through four games, but it's still tough to overlook the fact that Klay Thompson missed Game 3 and Kevin Durant has yet to play in the Finals.

Thompson returned for Game 4, showing up and dropping 28 points in the loss, and Durant is set to come back in Game 5.

Could that shift the entire series and allow the Warriors to make history?

With or Without KD

If Durant didn't suit back up this season, the Raptors would be 88.6% likely to win the NBA Finals (and 57.2% likely to end it in Game 5), according to our projections czar, Sam Hauss. That would put the Dubs' odds at a lowly 11.4%.

Even with the All-Star forward back in the mix for Game 5 (and presumably the rest of the series), our algorithms give the Warriors just a 19.1% chance to tear off three straight wins and secure another NBA Finals victory.

On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Warriors can be backed at +370, odds that are dropping quickly. However, the best value appears to be on tonight's 214.0-point over/under, according to our game projections.