MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 7/26/23: Trust the Cubs Against Their Crosstown Rivals
Baseball has got you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.
From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule nearly every day. Daily outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
With that said, which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
Cubs Moneyline (-110)
The Chicago Cubs will look to keep things rolling tonight and pick up the win against their rivals, the Chicago White Sox.
When it comes to tonight's pitching matchup, things could not be more different for these two teams. The Cubs will have Marcus Stroman on the mound, and he has been among the most consistent pitchers in the league this season. For the White Sox, they are going with Lance Lynn, a pitcher who continues to struggle with the long ball this season.
Stroman comes in with a 3.09 ERA, 3.86 xERA, 4.17 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), 57.8% ground-ball rate, and 57.0% medium-contact rate. While Stroman's xERA suggests he is due for a bit of negative regression, it shouldn't come at the hands of the weaker White Sox lineup.
This season, the White Sox come in with an 84 wRC+ (28th), .292 wOBA (27th), .151 ISO (20th), and 23.6% strikeout rate (10th), versus right-handed pitchers. They are a bottom-tier offense, and given the level of consistency from Stroman, he should be able to keep things under control tonight.
As for Lynn, he has a 6.18 ERA, 4.81 xERA, 3.88 SIERA, 2.19 HR/9, and 8.4% walk rate. It's clear his ERA is much higher than both his xERA and SIERA, putting him in a spot for some positive regression, But a 4.81 xERA isn't all that good anyway.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Over 8.5 (-108)
Another rivalry game, but this time we turn to over 8.5-run total between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros.
Much like the two Chicago teams above, we have two pitchers throwing who are worlds apart.
Framber Valdez is on the mound for Houston, and he has been downright fantastic this season. So much so that he is currently tied for the second-shortest odds (+500) to win the AL CY Young award on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Valdez comes in with a 2.94 ERA, 3.97 xERA, 3.33 SIERA, and 26.6% strikeout rate -- stellar marks across the board. He is also due for a bit of negative regression, and the Rangers are a team that can actually get that ball rolling in that department considering they have the eighth-best (.179) ISO and second-best (128) wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers this season.
Yes, Valdez has been elite, but this is also a very tough test for him against one of the league's best offenses. Seeing Valdez give up a few runs wouldn't be too much of a surprise.
Andrew Heaney will be on the mound for the Rangers, and he has been struggling for the majority of this season. A 4.58 ERA, 4.78 xERA, 4.41 SIERA, and 1.68 HR/9 are not a pretty set of stats to look at.
Houston's offense seems to be hitting a peak versus lefties right now, and it could spell disaster for Heaney. For the season, the Astros have 110 wRC+ (10th), .329 wOBA (12th), and .176 ISO (9th) versus southpaws. However, since the start of July, those numbers jump to 123 wRC+ (8th), .347 wOBA (10th), and .203 ISO (7th).
It took some time for the defending champs to hit their stride, but they are crushing the ball right now and can pile up runs quickly against Heaney. Plus, the Astros could get back slugger Yordan Alvarez for this one.
