3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 6/26/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Austin Hays To Hit a Home Run (+420)
The Baltimore Orioles take on the Cincinnati Reds with an over/under set at 10.0, giving us a high expectation for offense tonight.
Two of the most exciting young teams in baseball are going head-to-head, and we should see some scoring as a result. The Orioles come in with a slate-high 5.23 implied run total, which could be surpassed easily given the favorable hitting weather in Baltimore.
The Reds will have Brandon Williamson, a young pitcher who is struggling in his first year in the MLB, on the mound tonight. To this point, Williamson has allowed a .543 SLG, 5.42 xFIP, 2.43 HR/9, 46.3% fly-ball rate, and 33.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. It hasn't been an easy go at things for Williamson, who should expect to see at least six righty hitters tonight.
We turn to Austin Hays, who is crushing lefties this season to the tune of a 131 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .233 ISO, 50.9% fly-ball rate, and 41.5% hard-contact rate. It won't be a surprise to see the scoring coming early and often in this game, so I'm adding Hays To Record an RBI (+110).
Spencer Strider Over 9.5 Strikeouts (-102)
Spencer Strider is hilariously good at pitching.
Strider has ascended to the elite level of pitchers, and when he has a favorable matchup, you want to zero in on it.
Strider comes in with a 39.0% strikeout rate this season, which is noticeably higher than the league-average strikeout rate (22.7%). He's also carrying a 19.5% swinging-strike rate, which is higher than the league average of 11.1%. Last but not least, he has a 34.7% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate, which -- in no surprise -- is also higher than the league average (27.7%).
He's flat-out dominant across the board and, now, faces the easiest possible matchup you could imagine. The Minnesota Twins come in with a 27.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is good for the worst in the league. This has all the makings of a classic high-strikeout performance to dominate the slate.
This Strider will be cutting down opponents with strikeouts and whiffs -- not Andúril.
J.P. Crawford To Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)
The Seattle Mariners have a solid 4.81 implied run total and have some player props worth considering tonight.
They will be taking on Trevor Williams, who is simply an exceedingly average pitcher. There's nothing to be worried about with Williams on the mound and his low 12.6% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters. He's not dominant on the mound, which is shown by his 5.48 xFIP, .303 BABIP, 1.37 HR/9, and .471 SLG allowed to lefties.
With that said, we want to find a hitter on the Mariners who doesn't strike out a lot and puts the ball in play. That leads us to J.P. Crawford, who has a 16.3% strikeout rate versus righties along with a 129 wRC+, .349 wOBA, and .289 BABIP.
We're not looking for massive power from Crawford; he just needs to keep doing what he's going at the plate -- being super disciplined and putting the ball in play.
