4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/12/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins UNDER 8.0 Runs (-110)
A somewhat uninteresting matchup from a real baseball perspective gives us an opportunity to attack it from a betting side of things.
We all know that the Miami Marlins aren't a good team but the St. Louis Cardinals also aren't the best team in the league and leave plenty to be desired on the offensive end. First off, the park factor in Miami is horrible for hitters, which should help keep the scoring lower overall. Next, the Marlins come in with a 75 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is dead last in the league, but the Cardinals are only up at a 95 wRC+, which is 15th in the league.
The definition of bad and the definition of average should make a very uncompelling game where the under is likely and comes in with very little juice.
Mike Soroka UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-144)
Soroka comes in as the second most expensive pitcher from a DFS perspective, which should tell you the level of his starts he has been posting this season. But a high price doesn't mean he is a big strikeout pitcher, because that isn't the case at all for him. Soroka has a 21.9% strikeout rate this season, which is truly just average.
It doesn't jump off the page at you good or bad and that's because he isn't a strikeout-heavy pitcher. He relies on his 58.4% ground-ball rate to generate outs and limit the damage overall, but he isn't causing hitters to swing and miss at the plate. This is shown by the fact there is a decent amount of juice on the under 5.5 strikeouts, which is a very modest amount for any pitcher.
Justin Verlander OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-166)
While Soroka, mentioned above, isn't a big strikeout pitcher, Justin Verlander is the best strikeout pitcher on the slate and has a chance to show that tonight versus a dangerous lineup.
Verlander is carrying a 30.9% strikeout rate this season, which is the best of any pitcher on the slate and has a strikeout prop sitting at 8.5 tonight versus the Milwaukee Brewers. There is no doubt that the Brewers have plenty of power in their lineup but they also have a 25.0% strikeout rate versus righty pitchers, which is the seventh worst in the league. Milwaukee can swing big, but they can also miss big, which should play right into the hands of Verlander who has a 15.1% swinging-strike rate this season.
The juice is clearly there on this prop but this is a spot to rely on Verlander and his pedigree of doing what he does best, striking hitters out.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+240)
The hype seems to have come and gone for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but he is in a spot to go deep tonight and cash that home run prop.
The Toronto Blue Jays are visiting the Baltimore Orioles who will have David Hess on the mound, and he isn't a good pitcher at all. This season, Hess has a whopping 6.18 xFIP versus righty hitters, allowing 4.17 homers per nine innings, a 45.8% hard-hit rate, and a 58.5% fly-ball rate. He is allowing over four home runs per nine innings! That is so unbelievably bad, you should be targeting him whenever he is on the mound.
Guerrero comes in with a .192 ISO and 45.0% hard-hit rate versus right-handed hitters this season, from a slightly smaller sample size. Yes, he has the power and should be able to cash this prop versus a bad pitcher.