Who Were the Luckiest and Unluckiest Starting Pitchers in June?
Pitchers Not Living Up to Their Peripherals
On the other end of the spectrum, the table below displays 15 hurlers who struggled through a rough June. According to their SIERA, though, they pitched much better than some of their traditional stats say.
| Rank | Player | K% | BB% | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | SIERA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marco Estrada | 19.4% | 13.0% | 1.95 | .409 | 62.0% | 9.11 | 5.49 | 3.62 |
| 2 | Tanner Roark | 15.0% | 9.5% | 1.78 | .365 | 55.3% | 8.31 | 5.17 | 3.14 |
| 3 | Dinelson Lamet | 29.8% | 7.0% | 2.00 | .246 | 39.8% | 6.33 | 3.42 | 2.91 |
| 4 | JC Ramirez | 19.7% | 6.3% | 2.64 | .323 | 67.7% | 7.04 | 4.22 | 2.82 |
| 5 | Jaime Garcia | 22.0% | 7.6% | 1.76 | .345 | 61.2% | 6.75 | 4.08 | 2.67 |
| 6 | Adam Wainwright | 19.3% | 8.2% | 1.52 | .322 | 58.5% | 6.98 | 4.39 | 2.59 |
| 7 | Rick Porcello | 18.8% | 4.9% | 1.72 | .361 | 60.2% | 6.63 | 4.45 | 2.18 |
| 8 | Gerrit Cole | 20.1% | 7.8% | 1.54 | .324 | 64.2% | 6.17 | 4.34 | 1.83 |
| 9 | Daniel Norris | 24.8% | 9.4% | 1.69 | .389 | 67.6% | 6.08 | 4.33 | 1.75 |
| 10 | Ervin Santana | 18.6% | 5.6% | 2.36 | .345 | 73.3% | 6.03 | 4.40 | 1.63 |
| 11 | Jeff Samardzija | 24.8% | 1.5% | 1.64 | .293 | 63.9% | 4.64 | 3.13 | 1.51 |
| 12 | Jakob Junis | 16.8% | 6.9% | 2.86 | .299 | 70.6% | 6.35 | 4.87 | 1.48 |
| 13 | Stephen Strasburg | 31.6% | 6.6% | 1.78 | .298 | 71.0% | 4.58 | 3.13 | 1.45 |
| 14 | Clayton Richard | 14.6% | 7.6% | 1.27 | .365 | 69.1% | 5.86 | 4.61 | 1.25 |
| 15 | Lance Lynn | 23.9% | 11.6% | 2.56 | .231 | 77.2% | 5.68 | 4.58 | 1.10 |
BABIP City
As we've ended up seeing with this study throughout the year, hurlers not living up to their peripherals normally don't have a ton of luck in the BABIP department. That was on display once again in June -- the average BABIP allowed for the month was .304, and only 5 of the above 15 pitchers produced a mark below that number over the last 30 days.
One that really stands out is Toronto Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada and his .409 BABIP allowed, which is easily the highest amongst this group. Now, this would jump out no matter what, but it catches our eye because of what Estrada has done in this category over the last couple of years.
Between 2015-16 -- which spans 357 innings of work for the right-hander -- Estrada's BABIP allowed settled in at .224. It was already a bit elevated before this tough month, but it was only at .286 through his first 68.2 innings.
Among other things, one of the favors he can do for himself is limit line drives better -- his line-drive rate allowed has gone up each month this season (11.7% in April, 20.4% in May, and 28.7% in June).
Grounders Don't Always Do The Trick
Clayton Richard had a huge second half last season with the San Diego Padres after struggling with the Chicago Cubs, and for a southpaw that boasts a fastball that barely touches 90 miles per hour, finding success in other ways is always important. Richard does that with his ability to generate ground balls.
His 65.1% ground-ball rate in 2016 would've been the highest in baseball if he was a qualified hurler, and his 57.9% rate through three months once again has him among the league leaders. However, his hard-hit rate allowed has increased each month (29.1% in April, 33.3% in May, 35.8% in June), which certainly isn't ideal.
It's also not ideal for a pitcher who doesn't strikeout many hitters and is only stranding runners at just about a league-average rate for the year.
DC Times Two
In theory, the Washington Nationals are in a great situation -- they have a comfy lead in the NL East and our metrics have them as a near-lock for making the playoffs come October.
However, times are a little tough at the moment.
The Nats' bullpen issues are well known, and while they've been adjusting to life without Adam Eaton, it'll be tougher in the near-term with Trea Turner on the shelf. With this situation in mind, the starting rotation has to be at its best moving forward. Clearly, Scherzer is doing just fine, but Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark would like to see their names off this list next month.
Even though his ERA for June is a bit inflated, Strasburg is still showing he's more than capable of picking up the slack with a strikeout rate from this month that's far superior to anyone else in the above table.
Roark, though, has fallen on tough times -- he's allowing a fair amount of base runners without showing an ability to strand them, and while that BABIP seems awfully high, his 33.6% hard-hit rate allowed this month is the highest of any month this season. It's part of the reason why he's allowed as many homers in June (6) as he did in the first two months combined despite having a fly-ball rate (28.4% in June) that was much lower (32.6% in April and May).
