Daily Fantasy Golf Course Primer: TOUR Championship
This is it: the final event in the PGA Tour calendar. It's down to the final 30 in the FedEx Cup standings, meaning our choices are limited for daily fantasy lineups on FanDuel.
That doesn't mean, though, that there isn't an edge to be found if we dig into the course and apply some game theory. After all, Keegan Bradley won the last event at sub-10% ownership on FanDuel.
So what does East Lake GC have to offer?
Course and Tournament Info
Course: East Lake GC
Par: 70
Distance: 7,346 yards
Greens: Bermuda
Fairways: Zoysia
Rough: Bermuda
East Lake has long been the host of the TOUR Championship, and 10 years back, the course added about 150 yards to its length during a Rees Jones renovation. Relative to par, it's played about average over the past 10 iterations since that renovation.
| Year | Difficulty Rank | Course | Par | Yards | Avg Score | Avg O/U Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 31 | East Lake GC | 70 | 7,346 | 69.383 | -0.617 |
| 2016 | 27 | East Lake GC | 70 | 7,385 | 69.615 | -0.385 |
| 2015 | 17 | East Lake GC | 70 | 7,307 | 70.375 | 0.375 |
| 2014 | 20 | East Lake GC | 70 | 7,307 | 70.259 | 0.259 |
| 2013 | 30 | East Lake GC | 70 | 7,307 | 69.383 | -0.617 |
| 2012 | 20 | East Lake GC | 70 | 7,319 | 70.417 | 0.417 |
| 2011 | 28 | East Lake GC | 70 | 7,319 | 69.792 | -0.208 |
| 2010 | 18 | East Lake GC | 70 | 7,319 | 70.275 | 0.275 |
| 2009 | 16 | East Lake GC | 70 | 7,304 | 70.550 | 0.550 |
| 2008 | 15 | East Lake GC | 70 | 7,304 | 70.983 | 0.983 |
The course isn't gimmicky but rather just a straightforward test of skill, and that means we need our golfers to have no holes in their games, and the winner averaged 11.5 under par since 2004. Five of the past six winners were at least 10 under par.
Key Stats
These stats stand out as the most important for navigating East Lake GC.
| Key Stats for the TOUR Championship at East Lake GC |
|---|
| Strokes Gained: Tee to Green |
| Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda |
| Birdie or Better Rate |
| Scrambling |
| Driving Accuracy |
The past results suggest to play this one pretty direct, giving a lot of weight to strokes gained: tee to green. As usual, strokes gained: approach has been the most important non-putting stat at East Lake since 2010.
Putting is never easy to predict, but given that we have Bermuda greens, we can at least check out which golfers have fared well on Bermuda in the past via FutureOfFantasy and FantasyGolfMetrics.
Birdies are just as vital to fantasy scoring on FanDuel, and with a no-cut event, 72 holes offer a lot of scoring chances, so we need birdie-makers. Winners have posted a birdie or better rate of 27% since 2004, via FantasyGolfMetrics.
FutureOfFantasy notes that East Lake has hard-to-hit fairways, and winners have hit 62% of fairways here since 2004, compared to 55% for the full field.
Course History Studs
Via datagolf, Paul Casey (+2.85) leads the field in adjusted strokes gained average at this course since 2010. He's posted three straight top-five finishes here. Casey withdrew last week after three rounds.
Rory McIlroy comes in second at +2.71. Rory won here in 2016 after finishing 16th, 2nd, and 10th. He didn't play here last year.
Justin Rose (+2.29) is third and has posted six straight top-10 finishes (he didn't play here in 2016, though).
Jason Day (+2.01) is fourth but has tapered off of late, finishing 14th, 4th, 10th, W/D, and 17th since 2013.
Dustin Johnson (+1.62) ranks fifth. He finished 17th last year but was 6th, 5th, 5th, and 10th in his four prior tries.
