There is no time to recover from day one of the NCAA Tournament with another 16 games on the slate Friday. If you were not feeling Thursday's games from a betting perspective, or maybe you did so well that you want to come back for more -- because clearly those are the only two options there -- we have some more recommendations to make 12 hours of basketball even more exciting.
We are once again feeling the underdogs on Friday, which is probably a result of that "there are not any great teams this year" narrative. Lots of high point spreads for our favorites to go far in the big dance, but March Madness did not get its name by having a bunch of big schools beat up on the little ones -- so let's root for some dogs!
Using our models as a guide, here are our best bets for Friday.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Want to get a huge leg up on your March Madness pool? Subscribe to numberFire and get instant access to power rankings, bracket picks, game simulators, and tons of awesome expert advice to help you make the right decision.
Even better, we're offering our subscriptions at $19 over the first month when you use the promo code BRACKET.
(16) UMBC Retrievers vs. (1) Virginia Cavaliers
UMBC +22.5 (5-stars out of 5)
The UMBC Retrievers have reached the tournament via the automatic bid from the America East Conference after shocking Vermont on the road. Their first-round opponent is the top overall seed, Virginia, who has struggled to blow out their first-round opponents in past tournaments, even when they are a top-two seed. Outside of their 2016 drubbing of Hampton, the Cavaliers have won their first-round game by an average of 9.0 points while playing as a 5, 2, and 1 seed.
Not to say Virginia is going to struggle mightily with a UMBC team that ranks 132nd in offensive rating, but 22.5 points is a large number to cover when your main focus is to just advance to the next round. UVA has also had trouble covering double-digit spreads this season -- posting a 5-5 record against the spread (ATS) when favored by more than 10. They have failed to cover six of their last seven games in which they have been favored by 7.5 or more. Additionally, news broke Tuesday that the team's fourth-leading scorer and first man off the bench, De'Andre Hunter, will miss the remainder of the season with a wrist injury.
UMBC can make this game more interesting because of their ability to hit threes -- something necessary to hang with Virginia. The Retrievers are 9th in the country in three pointers made and 34th in three-point shooting percentage. The player to watch for UMBC is senior guard Jairus Lyles, the team's leading scorer and the guy who hit the game winning three to send the Retrievers to the big dance.
(12) Murray State Racers vs. (5) West Virginia Mountaineers
Murray State +10 (4-stars out of 5)
Our next game is the 5/12 matchup in the East Region in which Murray State of the Ohio Valley Conference will take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. The line for this game is set at 10.0 points, but our projections have this as a 3-point game in West Virginia's favor. If that sounds interesting to you as a straight up underdog pick, the moneyline is currently a +405, which is incredible odds for a game we believe to be so close. However, if you would like a safer pick, just stick with the spread.
Murray State has put together a fantastic season -- posting a 26-5 record and going unbeaten since January 18th. They win the battle on the three-point line, both shooting and defending well behind the arc -- something West Virginia is not very good at. The key for the Racers is limiting turnovers, which they have done a decent job of, turning the ball over only three more times per 100 possessions than the leader in this category. So long as they can use their 26th-best defense, according to defensive rating, to keep West Virginia from setting up their press, the Racers should be able to keep this game close, if not win outright.
While West Virginia took some hits along the way in the very tough Big 12 this season, they managed to finish second in the final standings and lost in the conference tourney championship game. The Mountaineers' biggest issue is the long stretches they can go without scoring. If they struggle to put the ball in the basket, they cannot set up their press and therefore lose their edge defensively.
(9) Kansas State Wildcats vs. (8) Creighton Bluejays
Over 144.5 (3-star rating out of 5)
The matchup between Creighton and Kansas State is being labeled the "Marcus Foster Revenge Game" since it is the first time the Bluejays' guard will be facing the team he started his collegiate career with before being dismissed following his sophomore season and forced to transfer to keep playing basketball. Being an 8/9 game, this is a total toss up, and considering their contrasting styles, it will be interesting to see who wins out in that regard.
Creighton ranks 10th in the nation in scoring, coming in just above the 84-point mark, and sits 18th in offensive rating. The aforementioned Foster is the dynamic scorer on Creighton -- averaging a shade more than 20 points per game -- and he will not be lacking motivation in this one. The Bluejays also lean on the scoring of junior guard Khyri Thomas, who can light it up from three, just like Foster. However, the Bluejays do their best work inside the arc, shooting just under 60 percent from two -- which ranks third in the country.
While Kansas State is more defensive oriented, they have the players who can turn this game into a high-scoring affair against a Creighton team that is less than stellar on the defensive side of the floor. Juniors Dean Wade and Barry Brown both average over 16 points per game this year, and the team as a whole averaged just over 72 points per game.
Our projection has the total for this game at 151 points, which would eclipse the under/over by plenty.
(13) Marshall Thundering Herd vs. (4) Wichita State Shockers
Marshall +12 (2-star rating out of 5)
Sticking with the underdogs in the bracket, we like Marshall to cover their matchup with Wichita State in what should be an exciting, high-scoring game in San Diego. This game pairs two of the top-20 scoring teams in the nation -- both eclipsing 83 points per game.
Marshall enters as the surprise representative out of Conference USA after dropping Western Kentucky in the championship game. You know this team is serious about offense when their coach is none other than the brother of Houston Rockets' coach Mike D'Antoni. Similar to the Rockets, they may not be the best three-point shooting team, but they are sure going to take them. Marshall ranks 13th and 8th, respectively, in three pointers made and attempted, and they are 14th in two-point shooting percentage. They also have two junior guards -- Jon Elmore and C.J. Burks -- who average 20-plus points per contest. The Thundering Herd do not waver against good competition -- beating Middle Tennessee twice and nearly knocking off Xavier on the road.
Wichita State is not a terrible defensive team, but one of their biggest struggles is one of Marshall's fortes -- three-point shooting. The Shockers have allowed opponents to shoot over 36 percent from three this season, and with the way Marshall likes to launch them, this could mean trouble for Wichita State if the Herd get hot. Another important factor is Wichita's 12-18 record against the spread. In fact, the Shockers have failed to cover their last four games in which they have been favored by double digits.
(12) New Mexico State Aggies vs. (5) Clemson Tigers
New Mexico State +190 (2-star rating out of 5)
Similar to the Loyola (IL) pick from yesterday, this is a very popular upset pick that we feel is absolutely possible. New Mexico State is going off at almost 2-to-1 odds when they face Clemson Friday, and our projections have this as a one or two point game in the Tigers' favor.
Clemson's hopes of a deep run in the tournament were nearly left for dead when senior guard Donte Grantham was shut down for the rest of the season with a knee injury. The Tigers have dropped five of their last eight -- albeit all the defeats were to tournament teams -- but still had the ability to take down the likes of North Carolina and Florida State without Grantham, their second-leading scorer. However, this is a less-than-ideal draw for a shorthanded 5 seed.
New Mexico State is capable of beating tournament-caliber teams -- having already taken down Miami (FL) and Davidson on a neutral floor this year. This will likely be a defensive battle considering both teams rank in the top 15 of Kenpom's adjusted defensive efficiency, but the Aggies should be up to the task. They rank 10th in the nation in points allowed and are lead offensively by senior guard Zach Lofton -- who averages just under 20 points per game.
With the point spread being set at Clemson by 5, Vegas agrees that this is going to be a tight game.