Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 8/29/20
Another Saturday means another UFC card. And you can get used to that, because there is now a UFC event scheduled for every week until the end of this year.
This one is headlined by a rare three-round main event between light heavyweight contenders Aleksandar Rakic and Anthony Smith.
This card ranges from debuting fighters all the way up to 22-fight UFC veteran Neil Magny, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the best bets to make.
Aleksandar Rakic (-290) vs. Anthony Smith (+235)
After opening his UFC career with a 4-0 record, Rakic is coming off of his first loss in the promotion in what was scored as a split-decision victory for Volkan Oezdemir. Although many analysts say that Rakic won that fight. His opponent, Smith, is coming off of a much more brutal loss during which he had his teeth knocked out by Glover Teixeira en route to a fifth-round TKO defeat.
Both fighters stand at 6'4", while Rakic holds a two inch read advantage. He also outmatches Smith in just about every major statistical category.
| Fighter | Aleksandar Rakic | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.17 | 3.19 |
| Striking Accuracy | 52% | 46% |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 2.41 | 4.57 |
| Defense | 53% | 43% |
| Takedowns Averaged Per 15 Minutes | 1.20 | 0.45 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 28% | 27% |
| Takedown Defense | 88% | 51% |
| Submissions Averaged Per 15 Minutes | 0.30 | 0.70 |
Both of Rakic's two most recent victories came by way of first round KO/TKO, but his other two UFC victories came by decision, and he has gone the distance in three of his five UFC fights total. Meanwhile, Smith has been finished inside three rounds just once in the UFC. He even went a full five rounds with Jon Jones just last year.
Despite the statistical advantages, Smith still represents a step up in competition over some of Rakic's previous opponents, and this fight provides a break from fighting established top competition for Smith. Rather than laying the points in this one, take the fight to go the distance at +160.
Neil Magny (-255) vs. Robbie Lawler (+210)
This matchup carries a combined 42 UFC fights between the two fighters.
Magny comes into the fight riding a two-fight win streak and was supposed to fight red-hot prospect Geoff Neal, who had to pull out of the fight just three weeks ago. Robbie Lawler is taking this fight on short notice and is in need of a win after dropping three straight fights and losing four of his past five.
Magny will have a significant range advantage, standing four inches taller and extending six inches longer in reach than Lawler. Both fighters have similar striking offense numbers, while Lawler absorbs an average of 1.99 more significant strikes per minute than Magny does.
Lawler is certainly past his prime, during which he was the welterweight champion, but he still went the distance with Colby Covington in his most recent fight before Covington went on to fight for the title. Lawler has been finished early in two of his past four losses, but one of those came against Ben Askren in a fight that many analysts argue should have been stopped in Lawler's favor prior to that submission loss. Magny, on the other hand, has picked up four of his past five wins by way of decision.
This fight is appropriately priced at -205 to go the distance. The stats and recent history are leaning in Magny's favor, but his line of -255 not all that appealing. The better straight bet in this fight is Magny winning by points at +130.
Mallory Martin (-335) vs. Hannah Cifers (+270)
Seven of the 10 fights with odds currently posted for this card have a favorite of -250 or better. As recent events have shown us, it's unlikely that all of those favorites are going to win as predicted, so it's important to find value on an underdog.
Mallory Martin is a sizable favorite this weekend despite getting submitted in her lone UFC fight. Hannah Cifers is rightfully an underdog after being finished in three straight fights this year, but all of those defeats came against fighters better fighters than Martin. At just 5'1", Cifers came in to the UFC very undersized for the strawweight division and has noticeably built up more size throughout her UFC tenure.
The value on this fight is at Cifers to win +270, and anyone looking for longer odds can take a look at Cifers winning by points at +420.
