2018 World Cup: Finding Betting Value in Group Stage Point Totals

Group B

Morocco: Over 2.5 (2.85 projection)

The sequence of group stage matches sets up perfectly for Morocco, and that should help them finish with at least three points.

Their opening game against Iran will provide a great opportunity for a full three points (42% win chance), and given that Morocco will likely need the full three points against Iran to have any chance to the knockout stage, they will likely push very hard for the win.

Not only that, but they also match up against Spain in the final group stage game and La Espana may very well have already clinched a spot in the knockout stages before that match is played. If that is the case, Spain could rotate out their starters -- or give a few key players limited minutes -- and Morocco would have a much better chance to win than our current projection of 7.0% indicates.

No matter what -- Morocco over 2.5 is a good bet, but the circumstances could turn this into an even better bet than our simulator suggests.

Here is a complete Group B Betting Guide.