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NFL Survivor Pool Best Bets: Week 16

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The Packers over the Titans is obvious, but keep your eye on those Carolina Panthers.

I’m A Survivor: Maximize Your Winnings Week 16

Most people, when picking for their eliminator pool, just pick the team with the best chance to win that week. The best way to maximize your chances of winning, however, is to make a decision based on what teams other people are picking. If 75% of the population is picking the top game, you stand to gain from picking the second best option. That way, even though both teams are likely to win, if the top team is upset (see: Patriots, Week 2), 75% of the pool has been eliminated and you are still standing. Using every possible combination of game outcomes for the week (65,000+), we tell you who maximizes your potential gains.

Week 16's Top Picks

Green Bay over Tennessee (84.3% Win Probability)
The Packers just clinched the NFC North and while Tennessee looked solid on Monday Night, they were playing the Jets after all. Aaron Rodgers and the NFC’s No. 1 passing attack should have a field day.

Denver over Cleveland (77.7% Win Probability)
The Broncos have won nine straight and are the hottest team in the NFL right now. Cleveland made it a game against Kirk Cousins, but will need a miracle to take down Peyton Manning.

Carolina over Oakland (71.1% Win Probability)
We’ve been saying it all year, the Panthers are a good team despite their record. Cam Newton and company have won three of their last four and are coming off their first back-to-back wins all year.

This week’s most picked teams:
1. Denver Broncos over Cleveland Browns (19.7%)
2. Indianapolis Colts over Kansas City Chiefs (9.3%)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers over St. Louis Rams (8.4%)

Who to Pick

Green Bay Packers (82.5 adjusted win odds)
Most likely, everyone will have picked the Packers and Broncos by this point. Redskins over the Eagles is a solid pick, and I would recommend Carolina over Oakland.

Full Adjusted Win Odds (Based on population picks)

TeamAdj Win Odds
GB82.5%
DEN70.8%
WAS70.2%
MIA69.5%
CAR68.1%
CHI66.0%
IND64.0%
ATL63.8%
NE61.8%
HOU59.3%
SEA59.1%
NYJ58.2%
CIN57.1%
NYG56.2%
DAL54.3%
STL53.0%
TB47.0%
NO45.7%
BAL43.8%
PIT42.9%
SD41.8%
SF40.9%
MIN40.7%
JAC38.2%
DET36.2%
KC36.0%
ARI34.0%
OAK31.9%
BUF30.5%
PHI29.8%
CLE29.3%
TEN17.5%

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