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NFL Survivor Pool Best Bets: Week 12

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Christmas on Thanksgiving, going Red (Rocket) and (A.J.) Green may be the key to picking a winner this week.

I’m A Survivor: Maximize Your Winnings Week 12

Most people, when picking for their eliminator pool, just pick the team with the best chance to win that week. The best way to maximize your chances of winning, however, is to make a decision based on what teams other people are picking. If 75% of the population is picking the top game, you stand to gain from picking the second best option. That way, even though both teams are likely to win, if the top team is upset (see: Patriots, Week 2), 75% of the pool has been eliminated and you are still standing. Using every possible combination of game outcomes for the week (65,000+), we tell you who maximizes your potential gains.

Week 12's Top Picks

Denver over Kansas City (75.2% Win Probability)
The Broncos have won five straight and should roll on Kansas City. The Chiefs have major issues on both sides of the ball, the first of which is who to start at quarterback? When you are thinking about playing Ricky Stanzi, you know it can’t be good.

Cincinnati over Oakland (72.3 % Win Probability)
Fresh off a shellacking of Kansas City, Cincinnati takes on Oakland at home. The Bengals offense consists primarily (if not solely) of Andy Dalton to A.J. Green attempts. Deservedly so, though, check out last week’s ridiculous grab by A.J.

New England over New York Jets (71.1% Win Probability)
No. 1 and No. 2 in the AFC East battle in an epic showdown! Well, not quite. The Pats are 7-3 while the Jets are 4-6. They did go to overtime last time they played, though.

This week’s most picked teams:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns (15.6%)
2. Denver Broncos over Kansas City (15.0%)
3. Philadelphia Eagles over Carolina Panthers (10.7%)

Who to Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (69.7 adjusted win odds)
The Broncos are the safer play, in my eyes, if you still have them left, but Bengals should dominate on Sunday.

Full Adjusted Win Odds

TeamAdj Win Odds
CIN69.69%
NE69.54%
DEN68.58%
CAR65.80%
SEA61.78%
TB59.64%
NO59.61%
MIN58.77%
TEN58.00%
BAL54.85%
IND54.74%
ARI52.54%
DAL52.18%
NYG51.29%
HOU50.42%
CLE50.10%
PIT49.90%
DET49.58%
GB48.71%
WAS47.82%
STL47.46%
BUF45.26%
SD45.15%
JAC42.00%
CHI41.23%
SF40.39%
SD40.36%
MIA38.22%
PHI34.20%
KC31.42%
NYJ30.46%
OAK30.31%

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