Fantasy Football: Is Tyler Lockett Worth His Rising Draft Price?
The Verdict
Right now, our algorithms project Wilson to attempt 447 passes, accruing 3,409 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions.
Lockett is projected for 53 catches, 740 yards, and 4 touchdowns.
If we examine player outlooks using a range of outcomes, it's not at all unreasonable that the tandem outperforms these median projections, especially if the second-half production continues and the Seahawks' offensive philosophy shifts to a more pass-happy approach.
So what do we need to happen for Lockett to hit the high end of his range of outcomes and be worth his ADP?
First, the Seahawks need to pass more in 2016. If the Seahawks increase Russell Wilson’s attempts by 10 percent this season, this would still only put Seattle right around league average in terms of run-pass ratio. A pass-heavy philosophical overhaul would be required for Seattle to be above league average in this department.
Second, Lockett needs to improve his yards per reception after averaging 13.0 yards-per-catch a year ago, but with his deep threat ability, it’s totally conceivable for this number to approach 14 or 15 if he and Wilson connect on a few more long passes this season.
Third, Lockett needs to maintain his catch rate. While Lockett is viewed as as speedy deep threat, it may go unnoticed that he ranked 12th in the NFL last year with a 73.9 percent catch rate. When more volume comes his way this season, he’ll have to continue that efficiency to reach his full potential.
Fourth, Lockett becomes a red zone monster. He received just four red zone targets last season -- all after the Week 9 bye -- and converted two of those opportunities, while his other four touchdowns came from beyond 20 yards. If he can create space and generate more red zone targets in 2016, a higher touchdown total will go a long way in his year-end ranking.
Those are a lot of “if” scenarios -- Lockett will justify his ADP “if” all four of the above come to fruition. If you are a believer in these things happening, then you should draft Lockett at his new price.
But the odds are stacked against him reaching his ceiling this season.
