The Best Players to Stash in Fantasy Football From the NFC East
Ryan Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys
The Player
Ryan Williams may not make the final roster in Dallas, but if he does, then I’m intrigued. We know the narrative of the Cowboys' offensive line, and Williams might be the most talented runner on the roster.
The former Arizona Cardinals’ second-round pick (38th overall) has struggled to return from a ruptured patella tendon suffered during his rookie season. Williams, who spent all of the 2014 season on the Cowboys’ practice squad, was signed this offseason to a two-year futures contract with a $240,000 signing bonus and an average salary of $750,000 for 2015 and 2016, per NFLPA records. This was after rushing for an impressive 112 yards on 25 carries last preseason and surprising many with his power and explosiveness during training camp.
However, Williams’ knee continues to betray him, swelling up during offseason practices and forcing him to miss time alongside fellow training room companion Darren McFadden. If he isn’t able to practice and play consistently during training camp and the preseason, the team could easily part ways, effectively ending his short and disappointing career.
In his only healthy NFL action in 2012, Williams struggled behind a putrid Arizona offensive line, amassing only 208 total yards on 65 touches. In terms of our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which quantifies a player’s production relative to league expectation level based on historical performance, Williams really struggled. He secured a Rushing NEP per play of just -0.33. That ranked 30th among 30 running backs who saw between 50 and 100 carries in 2012 and was a pretty distant 30th (teammate Beanie Wells was 29th at -0.23).
That being said, he was destined to fail on a team that struggled with poor quarterback play all year. The team’s schedule-adjusted Passing NEP per play of -0.17 was last in the league. The Jaguars were 31st with a mark of -0.10.
The talent has always been there, and as an athlete, he tested at the top of his position group in the vertical jump, broad jump and 60-yard shuttle. In college, he demonstrated the ability to excel as a runner and receiver, and he possesses the frame to be a workhorse back in this league.
The Opportunity
Competing for carries in the Cowboys backfield is Darren McFadden, who has spent the majority of his career also battling injuries and attempting to shed the bust label. In his last year in Oakland, he predictably struggled on a bad offense, posting a Rushing NEP per play of -0.15, which ranked worse than players such as Toby Gerhart (-0.14), Branden Oliver (-0.12) and Alfred Blue (-0.12).
Lance Dunbar, a favorite for third down work in Dallas, recorded a Rushing NEP per play of -0.20 on 28 carries in 2014, even behind that dominant Cowboys line.
The lead candidate for carries, Joseph Randle, was an impressive 0.11 in that same category on 51 carries. On a per-play basis, that ranked him alongside Jamaal Charles (0.11) and just ahead of C.J. Anderson (0.10), but both runners maintained that mark on upward of 175 carries. But a closer look at his stats indicate that most of his limited success came off a few big runs, which inflated his rather pedestrian touch totals. His pre-draft measurables were less than impressive, and he profiled as a smaller, slower backup who could fill in if needed. He also has proved to be a bit of a headache off the field.
If he falters, the door is wide open for someone to become a workhorse for the Cowboys. And while this is the best offense Darren McFadden has ever been on, Dallas clearly saw something in Williams that led them to sign him to a multi-year deal. He is under the radar for sure, but so was C.J. Anderson, and he found his way on the field. Talent often does.
