5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 11

Favored Melvin Gordon is Dangerous

Melvin Gordon has been used less on the ground this year than in years past—he's averaging 2.1 fewer carries than last year—but that has been supplemented with and additional 1.3 targets per game. Then there's his efficiency: Gordon is averaging 0.17 Rushing Net Expected Points per Carry (you can read more about NEP in our glossary). He's never had a positive Rushing NEP before this year.

This week he and the Los Angeles Chargers are favored by 7.5 points (keep up with line movement using the DFS Heatmap Tool) against the Denver Broncos. Since his breakout in 2016, when the Chargers are favored by more than a field goal Gordon has a propensity to crush.

With a slight bump in carries (.6) and a receiving game boost (1.8 receptions) backing him in this split, Gordon is numberFire's highest projected running back.