Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 4

Start Alshon Jeffery in a Tournament

Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery has performed slightly better in his career when his team was the underdog. He has averaged 13.25 points per game in half-point per reception (PPR) formats when the Bears were underdogs in his career. When the Bears were favored, his production dropped to an average of 10.77 half-PPR points per game.

The Detroit Lions are currently favored by 2.5 points versus the Bears. Similar to the line movement mention in the Vikings recommendation, this game has also moved in our favor. The game opened with the Lions favored by 3 points but has since dropped to 2.5 points. This may not seem like a big move, but the number 3 is considered a key number by many bookmakers and it usually takes a bit more money, information, etc. for them to move off of 3. The total has also risen from the original opening number of 46 to the current total of 47.5 points.

Since 2015, both the Lions and Bears have seen the majority of their games go over the Vegas totals. The Lions games went over at a 57.9% rate, and the Bears games went over at 52.6% rate.

The Lions allowed Aaron Rodgers to throw four touchdowns in the first half last week. While Brian Hoyer is light years away from a talent like Rodgers, it shows that the Lions defense can be attacked through the air. In fact, Detroit ranks last in the league against the pass, per our schedule-adjusted metrics.

Due to his high cost of $8,600 on FanDuel -- the sixth-highest among all wideouts -- and his likely low-ownership due to his recent fantasy output, he's probably only worth of rostering in tourneys (GPP).