March Madness: Previewing Friday’s Sweet 16 Matchups
Butler (4) vs. North Carolina (1)
North Carolina has tremendous success grabbing rebounds. If anyone is going to take down the 1 seed, that will have to be a major point of emphasis. The Tar Heels have grabbed 58.8% of available rebounds, which leads the country. Butler, on the other hand, is right around average, grabbing 50.9% of rebounds.
Butler has gone through 13-seeded Winthrop and 12-seeded Middle Tennessee to get to the Sweet 16, while North Carolina dominated Texas Southern before squeaking past 8-seeded Arkansas.
Our metrics give North Carolina a 57.8% chance to win the game, but we like the Bulldogs with the +7-point spread.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
| Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | UNC | 18.1 | 4.6 | 0.534 |
| Joel Berry | UNC | 14.8 | 3.3 | 0.566 |
| Kennedy Meeks | UNC | 12.6 | 9.1 | 0.542 |
| Kelan Martin | Butler | 16.0 | 5.8 | 0.504 |
| Andrew Chrabascz | Butler | 11.1 | 4.5 | 0.494 |
| Kamar Baldwin | Butler | 10.0 | 3.7 | 0.556 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
| School | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp eFG% | Opp TOV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 UNC | 19.38 | 117.0 | 0.524 | 58.8 | 13.5 | 96.7 | 0.483 | 16.9 |
| #4 Butler | 14.73 | 112.7 | 0.548 | 50.9 | 13.5 | 100.8 | 0.504 | 17.4 |
