3 NBA Prop Bets to Target on 5/24/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the NBA. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kevin Durant UNDER 30.5 points (+105)
Kevin Durant notched at least 31 points in both Games 1 and 2 of this series, but he also finished with fewer than 28 in each of the last two games. In the 2018 playoffs as a whole, he has topped 31 points in only 5 of 14 games, despite playing without Stephen Curry in 6 of those games. Going back to the regular season, he also failed to top 26 points in either of his meetings with the Houston Rockets.
That lower scoring production against Houston doesn't look to be a coincidence, either. The Rockets were quietly one of the league's best defensive teams down the homestretch of the regular season, ranking third in defensive rating since the All-Star break.
The under being an underdog in this one makes it a fantastic value when we compare it to our projections -- which have Durant at 27.4 points for Game 5.
Chris Paul OVER 6.0 assists (-115)
Chris Paul has yet to record more than six assists in this series, but he has at least six dimes in 9 of his 14 playoff games this postseason. He also notched at least six assists in 48 of his 58 regular season games, with more than six helpers in 37 of those contests.
CP3 saw an increased usage rate in Game 3 (26.3%) and Game 4 (29.0%) of this series, and that has come with a nice bump in playing time when the game stays close, which has been the case only in Game 1 and Game 4. In Game 4, he played 41.5 minutes, and in Game 1, he logged 38.2 minutes. The Rockets are 1.0-point favorites tonight, so this should be another close one.
Our models also have Paul crushing the over here, projecting him for 8.2 assists despite expecting him to play only 32.3 minutes.
Clint Capela OVER 22.5 Total Points and Rebounds (-105)
This bet gives us slightly better odds than the line for Clint Capela notching a double-double (-115), and while it requires an additional three combined points and rebounds, it also gives us more flexibility in how he notches those stats.
He hasn't combined for at least 23 points and rebounds in any of his last five games, but before that span, he had 23 combined points and boards in seven of his first nine playoff games. Capela went for 23 combined rebounds and points in 57% of his games in the regular season -- despite averaging 3.0 fewer minutes per game in the regular season compared to his playoff minutes.
Capela is another guy our models have as a value, though it's a bit closer than the last two. We are projecting him to beat 22.5 combined points and boards by 5%, pegging him for a mark of 23.7 (coming from 13.6 points and 10.1 rebounds).